Match Info

Copa de la Reina Women - Quarter-finals

Date: 4 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: Centro Deportivo Wanda Alcalá de Henares (Madrid)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Brazil	Disney+
Colombia	ESPN 2
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN
North-central-america	ESPN Norte
Peru	Disney+
South-america	ESPN 2 South
Spain	RTVE Play, Teledeporte
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Atlético Madrid		Athletic Bilbao

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.6	5
	1.58	3.7	4.85
	1.61	3.9	4.93
	1.97	2.89	4.42	Watch
	1.57	3.4	4.8
	1.53	3.84	5.33
	1.55	4	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.67)	3.62 ↑ (3.6)	4.9 ↑ (4.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Madrid
56.2%

Draw
25.2%

Athletic Bilbao
18.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.7%

24.9%

21.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58%

26.9%

19.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético Madrid (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lola (C) 15. Lloris S. 4. Lauren Leal 11. Menayo C. 3. Medina A. 21. Iannuzzi F. 6. Boe Risa V. 17. Bartel J. 23. Alexia 20. Sarriegi A. 7. Jensen S.	1. Santana O. (G) 20. Elexpuru A. 3. Landaluze N. 23. Arana E. 17. Nevado N. 5. Valero M. 14. Banos L. 15. Pinedo C. 19. Vilarino M. 21. Campos A. 18. Ortega S.
Substitutes
16. Chinchilla P. 9. Guijarro S. 46. Gutierrez D. 12. Kuhl K. 13. Larque P. (G) 27. Martin N. 14. Otermin R. 5. Perez X. 41. Rodriguez L.	22. Agote D. 11. Azkona A. 34. Bordagaray A. 33. Gurtubay E. 32. Nagore A. 31. Pargaray T. 2. Torre Larranaga M. 26. Vega Z. (G) 27. Zaldivar N.
Coaches
Herrera J.	Lerga J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
33', 1 - 0, Jensen S. ⚽, Sarriegi A. (A),
38', 2 - 0, Sarriegi A. ⚽, Lauren Leal (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Campos A. ↓, Azkona A. ↑,
53', Bartel J. 🟨,
58', Banos L. ↓, Gurtubay E. ↑,
58', Nevado N. ↓, Zaldivar N. ↑,
58', Valero M. ↓, Agote D. ↑,
64', 3 - 0, Iannuzzi F. ⚽, Sarriegi A. (A),
66', Jensen S. ↓, Chinchilla P. ↑,
66', Bartel J. ↓, Kuhl K. ↑,
78', 4 - 0, Sarriegi A. ⚽, Chinchilla P. (A),
80', Boe Risa V. ↓, Martin N. ↑,
80', Sarriegi A. ↓, Guijarro S. ↑,
83', Menayo C. ↓, Perez X. ↑,
86', Landaluze N. ↓, Torre Larranaga M. ↑,
89', Pinedo C. 🟨,
90+2', 4 - 1, Azkona A. ⚽, Elexpuru A. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético Madrid won 2.

Atlético Madrid is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Athletic has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Atlético Madrid may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Atlético Madrid is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlético Madrid won 12 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 46:17. (average 2.3:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlético Madrid won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 23:5. (average 2.3:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Atlético Madrid - the odds 1.67 are the expected chance of winning is 53.72%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Madrid Féminas
Spanish Liga F Women
31.01.26	Atlético Madrid - Granada	1:1 ✺
Spanish Supercopa Women
20.01.26	Real Madrid - Atlético Madrid	3:1 ✺
Spanish Liga F Women
17.01.26	Atlético Madrid - Espanyol	0:1 ✺
14.01.26	Barcelona - Atlético Madrid	5:0 ✺
10.01.26	Atlético Madrid - Real Sociedad	5:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 TLLLT
- Athletic Bilbao Women
Spanish Liga F Women
31.01.26	Athletic Bilbao - Espanyol	2:1 ✺
Spanish Supercopa Women
21.01.26	Barcelona - Athletic Bilbao	3:1 ✺
Spanish Liga F Women
18.01.26	Tenerife - Athletic Bilbao	5:0 ✺
13.01.26	Real Madrid - Athletic Bilbao	0:1 ✺
10.01.26	Athletic Bilbao - Badalona	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.7 WLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Liga F Women
04.10.25	Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao	1:1
04.05.25	Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao	1:0
05.10.24	Athletic Bilbao - Atlético Madrid	0:2
Club Friendly Women
06.08.24	Athletic Bilbao - Atlético Madrid	0:0
Spanish Liga F Women
14.04.24	Athletic Bilbao - Atlético Madrid	1:0
16.09.23	Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao	3:0
12.02.23	Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao	1:0

Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide