Match Info

Champions League Women - League phase - Round 5

Date: 10 December 2025, Wednesday

Location: Centro Deportivo Wanda Alcalá de Henares (Madrid)

Referee: Caputi M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, TOD
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Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Disney+
Croatia	Disney+
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 3, Cablenet Sports 3
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Denmark	Disney+
Estonia	Disney+
Finland	Disney+
France	Disney+
Greece	Disney+
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Hungary	Disney+
India	FanCode, FanCode
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Italy	Disney+
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Kosovo	Disney+
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Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Mexico	TVC Deportes 2
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Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Disney+
Portugal	Disney+
Romania	Disney+
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Disney+
Spain	Disney+
Sweden	Disney+
Thailand	beIN Connect
Ukraine	Disney+
United-kingdom	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Atlético Madrid		Bayern Munich

	1	X	2
	3.75	4.1	1.65
	4.15	3.95	1.7
	4.12	4.13	1.72
	3.91	4.35	1.73	Watch
	3.8	3.7	1.7
	4.08	4.23	1.67
	4	4	1.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.97 ↑ (3.5)	4.07 ↓ (4.1)	1.7 (1.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Madrid
23.2%

Draw
22.6%

Bayern Munich
54.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.6%

21.8%

52.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.8%

22%

52.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Bayern Munich has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bayern Munich than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	12.5%	87.5%

Atlético Madrid - Bayern Munich Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayern (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Bayern Munich will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lola (C) 15. Lloris S. 4. Lauren Leal 11. Menayo C. 3. Medina A. 8. Garcia G. 6. Boe Risa V. 21. Iannuzzi F. 23. Alexia 20. Sarriegi A. 22. Luany	32. Mahmutovic E. (G) 7. Gwinn G. 4. Viggosdottir G. (C) 2. Gilles V. 20. Kett F. 27. Caruso A. 18. Tanikawa M. 10. Dallmann L. 21. Harder P. 17. Buhl K. 9. Damnjanovic J.
Substitutes
17. Bartel J. 31. Bucero A. (G) 28. Gomez C. 46. Gutierrez D. 7. Jensen S. 13. Larque P. (G) 27. Martin N. 14. Otermin R. 5. Perez X. 19. Portales Nieto M. 35. Redondo C. 41. Rodriguez L.	3. Ballisager S. 5. Eriksson M. 1. Grohs M. (G) 6. Hansen T. 38. Klink A. (G) 11. Schuller L. 14. Sehitler A. 30. Simon C.
Coaches
Alba V.	Barcala J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Boe Risa V. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
52', Gwinn G. (Penalty Awarded),
63', 1 - 1, Harder P. ⚽, Buhl K. (A),
64', Boe Risa V. ↓, Bartel J. ↑,
64', Sarriegi A. ↓, Jensen S. ↑,
66', Garcia G. 🟨,
66', Damnjanovic J. ↓, Schuller L. ↑,
66', Kett F. ↓, Simon C. ↑,
75', Tanikawa M. 🟨,
78', Tanikawa M. ↓, Ballisager S. ↑,
78', Dallmann L. ↓, Sehitler A. ↑,
78', 1 - 2, Harder P. ⚽,
88', Lloris S. ↓, Gomez C. ↑,
89', 2 - 2, Iannuzzi F. ⚽, Luany (A),

Preview

Recent performances by Atlético Madrid have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Bayern is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Atlético Madrid may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Bayern will hold a modest advantage in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Madrid Féminas
Spanish Liga F Women
06.12.25	Atlético Madrid - Sevilla	2:2 ✺
23.11.25	Tenerife - Atlético Madrid	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League Women
20.11.25	Twente - Atlético Madrid	0:4 ✺
Spanish Liga F Women
16.11.25	Atlético Madrid - Badalona	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League Women
12.11.25	Atlético Madrid - Juventus	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TLWWL
- FC Bayern Munich Women
German Bundesliga Women
07.12.25	Eintracht Frankfurt - Bayern Munich	0:5 ✺
23.11.25	TSG Hoffenheim - Bayern Munich	1:5 ✺
UEFA Champions League Women
20.11.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Bayern Munich	1:3 ✺
12.11.25	Bayern Munich - Arsenal LFC	3:2 ✺
German Bundesliga Women
07.11.25	Bayern Munich - Union Berlin	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WWWWW

Atlético Madrid - Bayern Munich: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide