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Current Win Probability
Atlético Madrid B 40.5%
Draw 29%
Algeciras 30.5%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
52.5%
26.8%
20.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
57.5%
29.4%
18.9%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Atlético Madrid B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Atlético Madrid B's form might have worsened.
Algeciras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Algeciras's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Madrid B than the current prediction. (+17%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atlético Madrid B, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Algeciras than the current prediction. (-11.6%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Algeciras, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Atlético Madrid B - Algeciras Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
13. Esquivel S. (G) 4. Bonar J. 15. Puric A. 5. Martinez D. 19. Corral A. 11. Koke 18. Bellotti M. 6. Serrano J. (C) 23. Ortiz A. 9. Llorente R. 10. Belaid R.
1. Moreno I. (G) 3. Marquez J. 6. Mayorga A. 15. Ruiz V. 11. Sanchez T. (C) 7. Rastrojo J. 20. Alamo J. 24. Castro O. 19. Obeng I. 21. Garcia J. 10. Garrido D.
Substitutes
20. Barboza M. 8. Castillo J. 30. Cubo M. 1. de Luis M. (G) 29. Esteban S. 28. Hueso R. 7. Luque I. 24. Najera R. 22. Perovic M. 27. Seidu T. 21. Sits D. 12. Spina G.
22. Adot Barandiaran P. A. 2. Arauz C. 17. Aviles J. 13. Casado S. (G) 4. Coch A. 16. Gomez A. 9. Gonzaga M. 23. Riley J. 8. Turrillo I.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (3 - 1)
14', 1 - 0, Bellotti M. ⚽, Belaid R. (A),
25', 2 - 0, Koke ⚽, Serrano J. (A),
37', Ruiz V. 🟨,
38', 3 - 0, Llorente R. ⚽,
45+1', 3 - 1, Castro O. ⚽,
45+4', Koke 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
53', Serrano J. ↓, Castillo J. ↑,
61', Ruiz V. ↓, Gomez A. ↑,
61', Sanchez T. ↓, Adot Barandiaran P. A. ↑,
68', Marquez J. ↓, Gonzaga M. ↑,
68', Garrido D. ↓, Arauz C. ↑,
70', Belaid R. ↓, Hueso R. ↑,
70', Koke ↓, Najera R. ↑,
86', Llorente R. ↓, Esteban S. ↑,
86', Bellotti M. ↓, Seidu T. ↑,
Preview
The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1 and 7).
Atlético Madrid B has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Algeciras is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Algeciras may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Atlético Madrid B will hold a modest advantage in this match.
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético Madrid B won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 1.2:1.2).
Including home matches between the teams, Atlético Madrid B won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).
Spain
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Esquivel S. (G) 
Puric A. 
Bellotti M. 
Obeng I. 
Najera R. 
Perovic M. 
Sits D. 
