Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 12 May 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Atanasio Girardot (Medellín)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz


	Atlético Nacional		Inter Bogotá

	1	X	2
	1.48	4.2	6.25	Watch
	1.43	4.25	7.4	Watch
	1.51	4.35	6.71
	1.44	4.5	6.71
	1.44	4	6.5
	1.54	4.37	6.51	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 (1.47)	4.28 ↓ (4.3)	6.68 ↑ (6.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Nacional
63.9%

Draw
22%

Inter Bogotá
14.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.9%

21.8%

14.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.1%

21.1%

13.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Atlético Nacional have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Inter Bogotá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Inter Bogotá than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Atlético Nacional - Inter Bogotá Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Atlético Nacional will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ospina D. (C) 6. Roman A. 28. Garcia S. 16. Tesillo W. 20. Casco M. 21. Campuzano J. 8. Uribe M. 18. Bello E. 19. Rengifo J. 13. Rodriguez N. 9. Morelos A.	1. Farinez W. (G) 20. Castro J. 2. Vivas C. 26. Irazoque A. 22. Suarez K. 10. Parra Atehortua K. 15. Quinones D. 5. Vasquez L. (C) 7. Sanguinetti F. 11. Bone F. 9. Valencia J.
Substitutes
17. Arango C. 10. Cardona E. 15. Castillo H. (G) 4. Haydar C. 14. Marin F. 24. Rosa J. 29. Sarmiento A. 5. Uribe C. 80. Zapata J.	6. Angel Amaya Pena M. 23. Caballero J. 21. Caicedo B. 19. Garcia Y. 25. Julio R. 24. Manjarres R. 8. Mayo S. 30. Palacio S. (G) 4. Rodas M.
Coaches
Arias D.	Valino R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Valencia J. ⚽,
40', 1 - 1, Garcia S. ⚽, Tesillo W. (A),
45+3', 2 - 1, Uribe M. ⚽, Rengifo J. (A),
2nd Half (5 - 0)
46', Casco M. ↓, Haydar C. ↑,
46', Quinones D. 🟨,
51', 3 - 1, Morelos A. ⚽, Rodriguez N. (A),
53', Bone F. ↓, Caballero J. ↑,
53', Quinones D. ↓, Manjarres R. ↑,
59', Valencia J. ↓, Mayo S. ↑,
61', Bello E. ↓, Sarmiento A. ↑,
61', Morelos A. ↓, Arango C. ↑,
65', 4 - 1, Garcia S. ⚽,
68', Farinez W. ↓, Palacio S. ↑,
71', Uribe M. ↓, Zapata J. ↑,
71', Rengifo J. ↓, Cardona E. ↑,
72', 5 - 1, Arango C. ⚽, Rodriguez N. (A),
78', 6 - 1, Cardona E. ⚽, Sarmiento A. (A),
82', 7 - 1, Sarmiento A. ⚽, Cardona E. (A),

Preview

First leg result: 2-1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Recently, Atlético Nacional has had a series of away games.

In this match, Atlético Nacional is the clear favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Atlético Nacional won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 2.5:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Atlético Nacional won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Atl. Nacional	11	7	2	2	21:10	11	23

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Nacional Medellin
Colombian Primera A
09.05.26	Inter Bogotá - Atlético Nacional	1:2 ✺
01.05.26	Once Caldas - Atlético Nacional	1:0 ✺
25.04.26	Deportivo Pereira - Atlético Nacional	1:0 ✺
20.04.26	Atlético Nacional - Atlético Bucaramanga	2:0 ✺
11.04.26	Independiente Medellín - Atlético Nacional	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WLLWW
- Internacional de Bogotá
Colombian Primera A
09.05.26	Inter Bogotá - Atlético Nacional	1:2 ✺
03.05.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Inter Bogotá	3:1 ✺
26.04.26	Inter Bogotá - Boyacá Chicó	4:0 ✺
20.04.26	Once Caldas - Inter Bogotá	2:1 ✺
12.04.26	Inter Bogotá - Alianza Valledupar	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
09.05.26	Inter Bogotá - Atlético Nacional	1:2
21.03.26	Atlético Nacional - Inter Bogotá	3:0

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