Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 9 - Round 21

Date: 1 April 2026, Wednesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	WebDirecto


	Atlético Porcuna		Mancha Real

	1	X	2
	2.22	2.98	3.05
	2.19	3.03	3.35
	3.16	1.94	4.02	Watch
	2.1	2.9	3.4
	2.06	3.04	3.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↑ (1.99)	2.78 ↓ (3.06)	3.46 ↓ (3.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Porcuna
39.6%

Draw
33.5%

Mancha Real
26.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.7%

29.7%

24.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.6%

28.5%

23.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Porcuna has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Atlético Porcuna's form might have worsened.

Mancha Real has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Porcuna than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atlético Porcuna, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mancha Real than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Atlético Porcuna - Mancha Real Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 9 and 15).

Atlético Porcuna is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Mancha Real's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Atlético Porcuna will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Atlético Porcuna won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlético Porcuna won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Atletico de Porcuna	5	2	0	3	6:14	-8	6
17	Mancha	5	0	2	3	2:7	-5	2

Last Results with these Odds

Mancha Real - the odds 3.71 are the expected chance of winning is 24.53%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Porcuna
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 9
29.03.26	Granada B - Atlético Porcuna	3:1 ✺
22.03.26	Atlético Porcuna - Huétor Vega	2:2 ✺
15.03.26	Huétor Tájar - Atlético Porcuna	1:2 ✺
08.03.26	Atlético Porcuna - Melilla B	1:0 ✺
28.02.26	Martos - Atlético Porcuna	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.6 LTWWW
- Atlético Mancha Real
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 9
28.03.26	Martos - Mancha Real	0:2 ✺
21.03.26	Mancha Real - Mijas-Las Lagunas	1:0 ✺
15.03.26	Marbellí - Mancha Real	1:0 ✺
08.03.26	Motril - Mancha Real	3:1 ✺
01.03.26	Mancha Real - Arenas Armilla	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 9
28.09.25	Mancha Real - Atlético Porcuna	2:0
03.11.24	Atlético Porcuna - Mancha Real	1:1
Club Friendly
14.08.22	Atlético Porcuna - Mancha Real	0:0

Atlético Porcuna - Mancha Real: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide