Match Info

ARGENTINA: Liga Profesional - Round 5

Date: 15 June 2024, Saturday

Location: Estadio Monumental Jose Fierro (Tucuman)

Referee: Dovalo P. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN
World	Fanatiz


	Atlético Tucumán		Defensa y Justicia

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.4	4.1	Watch
	1.78	2.8	3.5
	1.98	3.35	3.9	Watch
	2	3.34	4.33
	1.96	3.34	4.33
	1.95	3.3	4
	1.93	3.38	4.2	Watch
	1.91	3.25	3.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↓ (2.08)	3.27 ↑ (3.17)	4.04 ↑ (3.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Tucumán
48.4%

Draw
28.5%

Defensa y Justicia
23.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.6%

29.3%

26.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.3%

27.8%

27.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Tucumán has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Defensa y Justicia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Tucumán than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Atlético Tucumán that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Defensa y Justicia than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.3%	7.1%	28.6%

Atlético Tucumán - Defensa y Justicia Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Atlético Tucumán will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Defensa y Justicia will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético Tucumán: 35% – 88%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Durso T. (G) 14. Lagos A. 2. Flores F. 20. Romero N. 39. Orihuela M. 18. Tesuri R. 8. Acosta G. (C) 5. Sanchez A. 10. Pereyra J. 37. Coronel M. 19. Estigarribia M.	22. Fiermarin C. (G) 14. Cannavo E. 4. Tripichio N. (C) 21. Ramos S. 17. Alanis G. 30. Lopez K. 5. Gutierrez K. 8. Lopez J. 16. Molinas A. 27. Herrera L. 29. Fernandez N.
Substitutes
9. Bajamich M. 23. Bonfiglio F. 16. Brandan M. 15. Breitenbruch N. 44. Carrasco J. 11. Castro N. 26. Castro T. 1. Devecchi J. (G) 6. Ferrari G. 40. Giani J. 22. Ortiz S. 7. Servetto N.	18. Blandi N. 23. Bologna E. (G) 38. Brun L. 26. Caceres D. 20. Calderon E. 9. Godoy L. 13. Lucero S. 24. Marco F. 33. Palavecino N. 35. Schamine B. 31. Serrago T. 42. Valenzuela A.
Coaches
Sava F.	Meneghini F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
13', 1 - 0, Tesuri R. ⚽, Estigarribia M. (A),
31', Romero N. 🟨,
32', 1 - 1, Molinas A. ⚽, Alanis G. (A),
33', Molinas A. 🟨,
41', Lopez J. ↓, Lucero S. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Molinas A. ↓, Caceres D. ↑,
59', Fernandez N. 🟨,
69', Coronel M. ↓, Bonfiglio F. ↑,
71', Alanis G. ↓, Palavecino N. ↑,
76', Herrera L. 🟨,
80', Pereyra J. ↓, Castro N. ↑,
84', Acosta G. ↓, Giani J. ↑,
84', Tesuri R. ↓, Bajamich M. ↑,
90', Estigarribia M. (Pen),
90+3', Fernandez N. ↓, Schamine B. ↑,
90+5', Schamine B. 🟨,

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 19 and 24).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Atlético Tucumán won 1.

Recent matches Atlético Tucumán is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Defensa y Justicia is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recently Defensa y Justicia have a series of home games.

In this match Atlético Tucumán is a favorite.

There will not play in Atlético Tucumán: Ambrogio L. (Injury)

There will not play in Defensa y Justicia: Barbona D. (Injury) Togni G. (Injury)

Last 14 head-to-head matches Atlético Tucumán won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 19-24.

Including matches at home between the teams Atlético Tucumán won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 11-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Tucumán
Argentinian Liga Profesional
01.06.24	Vélez Sársfield - Atlético Tucumán	1:1 ✺
27.05.24	Atlético Tucumán - Platense	1:1 ✺
Copa Argentina
22.05.24	Atlético Tucumán - Gimnasia La Plata	1:2 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
19.05.24	Talleres de Córdoba - Atlético Tucumán	2:0 ✺
12.05.24	Atlético Tucumán - Boca Juniors	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TTLLW
- Defensa y Justicia
Argentinian Liga Profesional
03.06.24	Defensa y Justicia - Independiente	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
29.05.24	Defensa y Justicia - Universidad César Vallejo	0:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
25.05.24	Newells Old Boys - Defensa y Justicia	1:0 ✺
18.05.24	Defensa y Justicia - Gimnasia La Plata	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
14.05.24	Defensa y Justicia - Independiente Medellín	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 TLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
26.02.23	Defensa y Justicia - Atlético Tucumán	3:0
22.10.22	Defensa y Justicia - Atlético Tucumán	3:1
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
17.04.22	Defensa y Justicia - Atlético Tucumán	1:1
Argentinian Liga Profesional
24.11.21	Atlético Tucumán - Defensa y Justicia	0:4
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
08.05.21	Atlético Tucumán - Defensa y Justicia	5:0
Argentinian Liga Profesional
01.02.20	Atlético Tucumán - Defensa y Justicia	1:1
18.08.18	Defensa y Justicia - Atlético Tucumán	1:1

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