Match Info

Torneo Betano - Apertura - Round 16

Date: 3 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Monumental Jose Fierro (Tucuman)

Referee: Arasa N. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN Premium
Brazil	ESPN 4
China	K-Ball
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+
World	TyC Sports Internacional


	Atlético Tucumán		Lanús

	1	X	2
	2.6	3	3	Watch
	2.1	3.1	3.6
	2.62	2.98	2.88	Watch
	2.72	2.97	3.04
	2.68	2.93	2.98	Watch
	2.62	3.08	2.88	Watch
	2.62	2.98	2.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.57 ↑ (1.65)	3.01 ↓ (3.45)	3.04 ↓ (5.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Tucumán
37.1%

Draw
31.6%

Lanús
31.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.4%

26.9%

16.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.5%

27.9%

16.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Tucumán has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-19.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Atlético Tucumán's form might have worsened.

Lanús has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lanús's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Tucumán than the current prediction. (+21.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atlético Tucumán, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lanús than the current prediction. (-15.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lanús, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	37.5%	50%

Atlético Tucumán - Lanús Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Atlético Tucumán will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Lanús will win (votes: 4 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lanús: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Lanús (2.12) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Lanús (votes: 3 - 75%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Gonzalez J. (G) 4. Martinez D. 3. de los Santos M. 6. Ferrari G. 33. Brizuela M. 28. Auzqui C. 30. Lopez K. 5. Sanchez A. 23. Lamendola N. 9. Bajamich M. 27. Diaz L.	26. Losada N. (G) 13. Cardozo L. 2. Munoz E. (C) 35. De Jesus R. 28. Ontivero O. 39. Medina A. 33. Ramirez J. 36. Segovia A. 19. Rodriguez A. 25. Aquino D. 14. Canelo A.
Substitutes
8. Acosta G. 29. Cabrera L. 11. Castro N. 37. Coronel M. 25. Durso T. (G) 10. Franco N. 24. Godoy L. 41. Melo R. 39. Orihuela M. 13. Ortiz M. 7. Rodriguez L. 22. Ruiz R.	29. Aguilar B. 9. Bou W. 20. Cabrera B. 24. Izquierdoz C. 47. Laplace T. 10. Marcelino Moreno 6. Marcich S. 21. Mendez A. 17. Morales L. (G) 32. Orozco F. 11. Salvio E. 50. Sanchez F.
Coaches
Pusineri L.	Pellegrino M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
8', Lamendola N. 🟨,
8', Lopez K. 🟨,
21', Cardozo L. 🟨,
23', Diaz L. (Pen),
34', Brizuela M. 🟨,
45', Ferrari G. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Brizuela M. ↓, Orihuela M. ↑,
46', Lamendola N. ↓, Franco N. ↑,
56', Bajamich M. ↓, Coronel M. ↑,
61', Lopez K. ↓, Acosta G. ↑,
70', Rodriguez A. ↓, Sanchez F. ↑,
76', Aquino D. ↓, Salvio E. ↑,
76', Canelo A. ↓, Bou W. ↑,
77', Ontivero O. ↓, Marcich S. ↑,
77', Auzqui C. ↓, Ruiz R. ↑,
81', Ramirez J. ↓, Marcelino Moreno ↑,
88', Acosta G. 🟨,
90+2', 1 - 0, Franco N. ⚽, Acosta G. (A),
90+7', Orihuela M. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 13 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Betano (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

Lanús is Qualified for Torneo Betano (Apertura ~ Play Offs 1/8~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético Tucumán won 2.

Atlético Tucumán has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Lanús is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Atlético Tucumán may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Atlético Tucumán might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Atlético Tucumán: Infante J. (Knee Injury) Tesuri R. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Lanús: Acosta L. (Knee Injury) Cardozo A. (Yellow Cards) Loaiza R. (Knee Injury) Perez G. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Atlético Tucumán: Brandan M. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Lanús: Aguilar B. (Knee Injury) Pena Biafore F. (Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Atlético Tucumán won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 9:15. (average 0.8:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlético Tucumán won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 1.3:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Tucumán
Argentinian Liga Profesional
30.04.25	Atlético Tucumán - Independiente	2:0 ✺
28.04.25	Godoy Cruz - Atlético Tucumán	1:0 ✺
12.04.25	San Lorenzo - Atlético Tucumán	1:0 ✺
07.04.25	Atlético Tucumán - Instituto Córdoba	3:2 ✺
Copa Argentina
02.04.25	Atlético Tucumán - All Boys	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WLLWW
- CA Lanús
Argentinian Liga Profesional
27.04.25	Lanús - San Martín de San Juan	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
22.04.25	Vasco da Gama - Lanús	0:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
19.04.25	Lanús - Banfield	1:1 ✺
14.04.25	Godoy Cruz - Lanús	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
09.04.25	Lanús - FBC Melgar	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WTTTW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
27.10.24	Atlético Tucumán - Lanús	1:0
04.06.23	Lanús - Atlético Tucumán	2:1
15.06.22	Atlético Tucumán - Lanús	2:1
17.07.21	Lanús - Atlético Tucumán	4:2
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
06.03.21	Lanús - Atlético Tucumán	2:1
Argentinian Liga Profesional
22.02.20	Atlético Tucumán - Lanús	2:2
07.10.18	Atlético Tucumán - Lanús	0:0

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