Match Info

ARGENTINA: Torneo Betano - Apertura - Round 10

Date: 17 March 2025, Monday

Location: Estadio Monumental Jose Fierro (Tucuman)

Referee: Ferreyra B. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Atlético Tucumán		Vélez Sársfield

	1	X	2
	2.5	2.9	3.2	Watch
	2.37	2.95	3.1
	2.55	2.9	3.05
	2.45	2.96	3.42
	2.53	2.95	3.17
	2.5	2.9	3.1
	2.48	3.08	3.08	Watch
	2.55	2.9	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↑ (2.29)	2.94 ↓ (3.08)	3.15 ↓ (3.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Network on TV: TyC Sports

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Tucumán
37.9%

Draw
32.1%

Vélez Sársfield
30%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.1%

30.6%

28.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.4%

30.8%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Tucumán has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Vélez Sársfield has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Tucumán than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vélez Sársfield than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	28.6%	57.1%

Atlético Tucumán - Vélez Sársfield Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Atlético Tucumán will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). Vélez will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vélez: 35% – 88%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Durso T. (G) 4. Martinez D. 6. Ferrari G. 33. Brizuela M. 32. Infante J. 28. Auzqui C. 5. Sanchez A. 8. Acosta G. 10. Franco N. 9. Bajamich M. 27. Diaz L.	1. Marchiori T. (G) 21. Gordon J. 34. Fernandez D. 31. Gomez V. 3. Gomez E. 43. Andrada I. 19. Roldan L. 26. Bouzat A. (C) 46. Porcel M. 28. Carrizo M. 9. Braian Romero
Substitutes
16. Brandan M. 29. Cabrera L. 11. Castro N. 3. de los Santos M. 24. Godoy L. 12. Gonzalez J. (G) 23. Lamendola N. 30. Lopez K. 41. Melo R. 39. Orihuela M. 7. Rodriguez L. 22. Ruiz R.	41. Acuna M. 47. Bosch B. 45. Bussio F. 30. Cabral R. 48. Gomez I. 10. Montoro A. 11. Pellegrini M. 20. Pizzini F. 6. Quiros A. 12. Rodriguez R. (G) 7. Santos M. 40. Silvero T.
Coaches
Pusineri L.	Bravo M. R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
21', 1 - 0, Diaz L. ⚽, Auzqui C. (A),
27', 1 - 1, Braian Romero ⚽,
45+1', Sanchez A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
59', Gomez V. ↓, Quiros A. ↑,
65', Andrada I. ↓, Pellegrini M. ↑,
65', Porcel M. ↓, Pizzini F. ↑,
66', Acosta G. 🟨,
68', 1 - 2, Carrizo M. ⚽,
69', Franco N. ↓, Rodriguez L. ↑,
70', Auzqui C. ↓, Godoy L. ↑,
75', Bajamich M. ↓, Cabrera L. ↑,
77', Roldan L. ↓, Silvero T. ↑,
77', Carrizo M. ↓, Santos M. ↑,
81', Sanchez A. ↓, Lopez K. ↑,
81', Acosta G. ↓, Lamendola N. ↑,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 13 and 15).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Atlético Tucumán won 1.

Atlético Tucumán is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Vélez is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Atlético Tucumán could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Vélez have a series of home games.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Atlético Tucumán: Coronel M. (Inactive) Tesuri R. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Vélez: Cavanagh T. (Inactive) Fernandez T. (Knee Injury) Galvan T. (Inactive) Garcia J. (Broken ankle) Lagos A. (Injury) Machuca I. (Knee Injury) Mammana E. (Injury) Monzon F. (Injury) Ordonez C. (Inactive) Vazquez K. A. (Inactive)

Last 12 head-to-head matches Atlético Tucumán won 3 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 8:11 (average 0.7:0.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Atlético Tucumán won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5:2 (average 0.8:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Tucumán
Argentinian Liga Profesional
09.03.25	River Plate - Atlético Tucumán	1:0 ✺
03.03.25	Atlético Tucumán - Newells Old Boys	1:2 ✺
23.02.25	Atlético Tucumán - Gimnasia La Plata	0:1 ✺
16.02.25	Talleres de Córdoba - Atlético Tucumán	1:1 ✺
13.02.25	Atlético Tucumán - Sarmiento de Junín	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LLLTW
- Vélez Sársfield
Argentinian Liga Profesional
07.03.25	Vélez Sársfield - San Martín de San Juan	1:0 ✺
02.03.25	Vélez Sársfield - Huracán Buenos Aires	0:2 ✺
Copa Argentina
26.02.25	Vélez Sársfield - Ferrocarril Midland	1:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
21.02.25	Lanús - Vélez Sársfield	0:0 ✺
17.02.25	Vélez Sársfield - Godoy Cruz	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
01.06.24	Vélez Sársfield - Atlético Tucumán	1:1
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
02.03.24	Atlético Tucumán - Vélez Sársfield	0:0
09.10.23	Vélez Sársfield - Atlético Tucumán	3:1
Argentinian Liga Profesional
20.02.23	Atlético Tucumán - Vélez Sársfield	1:1
02.07.22	Vélez Sársfield - Atlético Tucumán	0:1
02.08.21	Atlético Tucumán - Vélez Sársfield	0:0
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
12.04.21	Atlético Tucumán - Vélez Sársfield	2:0

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