Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 3

Date: 11 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: Sao Januário (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Zanovelli P. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol
Mexico	Fanatiz
Usa	Fanatiz
World	TV Globo Internacional


	Vasco da Gama		Bahia

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.4	3.2	Watch
	2.18	3.25	3.25	Watch
	2.27	3.39	3.44
	2.37	3.25	2.99	Watch
	2.15	3.3	3
	2.24	3.38	3.34	Watch
	2.2	3.4	3.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↓ (2.47)	3.34 ↑ (3.13)	3.22 ↑ (2.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vasco da Gama
42.4%

Draw
28.3%

Bahia
29.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.2%

29.4%

33.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.3%

31.1%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Vasco da Gama's performance.

Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	50%	25%

Vasco da Gama - Bahia Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Vasco will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Bahia will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Bahia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 - Bahia (1.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Bahia (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leo Jardim (G) 2. Rodriguez J. 46. Cuesta C. 30. Robert Renan 6. Lucas Piton 88. Cauan Barros 23. Thiago Mendes 17. Moreira N. 10. Coutinho (C) 11. Andres Gomez 20. Brenner	1. Ronaldo Strada (G) 31. Gomez R. 4. Kanu 21. Ramos S. 46. Luciano Juba 26. Nicolas Acevedo 6. Jean Lucas 99. Olivera C. 10. Everton Ribeiro (C) 7. Ademir 12. Willian Jose
Substitutes
28. Adson 13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 7. David 19. GB 18. Hinestroza M. 60. Joao Vitor 98. JP 96. Paulo Henrique 29. Rojas J. 4. Saldivia A. 77. Spinelli C. 3. Tche Tche	19. Caio Alexandre 14. Erick 16. Erick Pulga 27. Everaldo 3. Gabriel Xavier 2. Gilberto 25. Iago Borduchi 34. Joao Paulo (G) 57. Kaue Junior 43. Luiz Gustavo 11. Rodrigo 23. Sanabria M.
Coaches
Diniz F.	Mucke R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', Kanu 🟨,
22', 0 - 1, Luciano Juba ⚽, Everton Ribeiro (A),
34', Olivera C. 🟨,
45+4', Andres Gomez 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
52', Nicolas Acevedo 🟨,
58', Kanu ↓, Gabriel Xavier ↑,
58', Ademir ↓, Erick Pulga ↑,
58', Willian Jose ↓, Everaldo ↑,
63', Lucas Piton ↓, Paulo Henrique ↑,
64', Moreira N. ↓, Hinestroza M. ↑,
64', Brenner ↓, Spinelli C. ↑,
72', Jean Lucas ↓, Erick ↑,
74', Thiago Mendes 🟨,
77', Thiago Mendes ↓, GB ↑,
83', Nicolas Acevedo ↓, Caio Alexandre ↑,
83', Coutinho ↓, Rojas J. ↑,
87', Rodriguez J. 🟨,
90+5', Cauan Barros 🟨,
90+5', Caio Alexandre 🟨,
90+7', Ronaldo Strada 🟨,
90+8', Paulo Henrique 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 2.

In recent matches, Vasco has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Bahia is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Vasco might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Vasco: Jair (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Bahia: Dell (Red Card) Ruan Pablo (Injury) Sidney Duarte (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 21:31. (average 1.1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Vasco won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:11. (average 1.7:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Bahia	29	12	10	7	43:36	7	46
14	Vasco	29	9	8	12	36:42	-6	35

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
08.02.26	Vasco da Gama - Botafogo RJ	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
05.02.26	Vasco da Gama - Chapecoense	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
02.02.26	Madureira - Vasco da Gama	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
29.01.26	Mirassol - Vasco da Gama	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
25.01.26	Boavista - Vasco da Gama	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WTTLW
- EC Bahia
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
08.02.26	Juazeirense - Bahia	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
05.02.26	Bahia - Fluminense	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
01.02.26	Bahia - Porto SC	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.01.26	Corinthians - Bahia	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
25.01.26	Vitória Salvador - Bahia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
23.11.25	Bahia - Vasco da Gama	1:0
24.09.25	Vasco da Gama - Bahia	3:1
28.10.24	Vasco da Gama - Bahia	3:2
26.06.24	Bahia - Vasco da Gama	2:1
03.09.23	Bahia - Vasco da Gama	1:1
01.05.23	Vasco da Gama - Bahia	0:1
Brazilian Serie B
28.08.22	Bahia - Vasco da Gama	2:1

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