Match Info

I Lyga - Round 7

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Lithuania	LNK


	Atmosfera Mažeikiai		Neptūnas

	1	X	2
	2.58	3.35	2.32
	2.63	3.58	2.21
	2.63	3.61	2.3	Watch
	2.63	3.25	2.3
	2.65	3.37	2.46	Watch
	2.25	3.25	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↑ (2.32)	3.4 ↑ (3.33)	2.4 ↓ (2.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Atmosfera Mažeikiai
35.4%

Draw
26.7%

Neptūnas
37.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.1%

27.2%

33.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

27.1%

33.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atmosfera Mažeikiai has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Neptūnas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atmosfera Mažeikiai than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Neptūnas than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Neptūnas Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
38', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
58', 🟥,
78', 1 - 1, ⚽,
81', 1 - 2, ⚽,
90+1', 1 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 5 and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atmosfera won 2.

Recent performances by Atmosfera have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Neptūnas is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Neptūnas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Atmosfera won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:18. (average 1.5:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Atmosfera won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 7:8. (average 1.8:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Neptunas	25	14	2	9	33:30	3	44
9	Atmosfera	24	8	6	10	37:33	4	30

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atmosfera Mažeikiai
Lithuanian Cup
21.04.26	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Žalgiris	2:1 ✺
Lithuanian Division 2
18.04.26	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Dainava Alytus	0:2 ✺
03.04.26	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Transinvest 2	1:2 ✺
21.03.26	FA Šiauliai B - Atmosfera Mažeikiai	1:4 ✺
18.03.26	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Kauno Žalgiris 2	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 30.9 WLLWW
- FC Neptūnas Klaipėda
Lithuanian Cup
22.04.26	Neptūnas - Džiugas Telšiai	0:2 ✺
Lithuanian Division 2
17.04.26	Neptūnas - BFA Vilnius	1:3 ✺
04.04.26	Babrungas Plungė - Neptūnas	1:0 ✺
22.03.26	Neptūnas - Tauras Tauragė	1:0 ✺
17.03.26	Neptūnas - Garliava	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Lithuanian Division 2
27.09.25	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Neptūnas	4:2
23.05.25	Neptūnas - Atmosfera Mažeikiai	1:0
03.08.24	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Neptūnas	1:0
08.03.24	Neptūnas - Atmosfera Mažeikiai	2:0
12.11.22	Neptūnas - Atmosfera Mažeikiai	4:2
06.07.22	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Neptūnas	2:2
25.09.21	Neptūnas - Atmosfera Mažeikiai	3:3

Upcoming Matches