Match Info

Premier League - Round 5

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Turkestan Arena (Turkestan)

Referee: Karabaev S. (Kaz)


	Atyrau		Kaisar

	1	X	2
	2.82	2.88	2.58	Watch
	2.85	2.9	2.52
	2.83	2.87	2.6	Watch
	2.8	2.9	2.45
	2.89	3.15	2.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.84 ↑ (2.45)	2.94 ↓ (2.98)	2.52 ↓ (2.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atyrau
32.4%

Draw
31.2%

Kaisar
36.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.6%

30.9%

31.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36%

29.6%

32.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atyrau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Atyrau's form might have worsened.

Kaisar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atyrau than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kaisar than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	88.9%	11.1%

Atyrau - Kaisar Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Kaisar will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 88.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 68.4% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Khatkevich E. (G) 78. Khvalko E. 6. Yudenkov R. 5. Satanov S. 2. Tkachenko Y. 55. Noyok O. 4. Rabiu M. 17. Kalmuratov K. (C) 14. Dorofeev K. 7. Henrique 18. Trufanov Y.	1. Salaydin N. (C) 93. Askarov S. 15. Idrisov N. 17. Zhumabekov S. 7. Tazhibay B. 8. Abiken A. 24. Cuckic N. 12. Sovet S. 70. Ezekiel I. 96. Mukhammed A. 11. Moses V.
Substitutes
27. Berdesh N. 99. Kereev B. 21. Orynbasar D. 77. Pangerey M. 12. Sagat N. (G) 11. Seytkaliev A. 35. Tokhtarov N. (G) 90. Yusov D. 9. Zhumabek A. 25. Zhumagali S.	9. Agzambaev N. 16. Azhikhan A. (G) 44. Batyrbek S. 14. Jones T. 6. Kaldybekov E. 40. Kovac A. (G) 18. Rustemuly D. 21. Serikuly D. 3. Tolegenov A. 23. Zhumat M.
Coaches
Cheburin V.	Ferapontov A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
32', Rabiu M. 🟨,
42', Henrique 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
61', Abiken A. ↓, Kaldybekov E. ↑,
64', Trufanov Y. ↓, Yusov D. ↑,
68', Mukhammed A. ↓, Agzambaev N. ↑,
68', Sovet S. ↓, Zhumat M. ↑,
70', Henrique ↓, Zhumabek A. ↑,
70', Zhumat M. 🟨,
72', 1 - 0, Khvalko E. ⚽, Dorofeev K. (A),
74', Moses V. 🟨,
79', Noyok O. 🟨,
79', Moses V. ↓, Rustemuly D. ↑,
79', Ezekiel I. ↓, Jones T. ↑,
87', Jones T. 🟨,
89', Agzambaev N. 🟨,
89', Yudenkov R. 🟨,
90+1', Zhumabek A. 🟨,
90+4', 2 - 0, Kalmuratov K. ⚽,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 10 and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atyrau won 0.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Atyrau is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atyrau won 6 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 20:24. (average 1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Atyrau won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 1.5:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Kaisar Kyzylorda	26	4	12	10	22:33	-11	24
15	Atyrau	25	4	11	10	18:28	-10	23

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Atyrau
Kazakh Cup
08.04.26	Jas Qyran - Atyrau	0:4 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
04.04.26	Ordabasy - Atyrau	1:1 ✺
20.03.26	Atyrau - Zhenis	0:0 ✺
16.03.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Atyrau	1:1 ✺
08.03.26	Atyrau - Ulytau	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WTTTT
- Kaisar Kyzylorda
Kazakh Cup
08.04.26	Talas Karatau - Kaisar	0:2 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
04.04.26	Kaisar - Kyzylzhar	0:0 ✺
20.03.26	Ordabasy - Kaisar	2:0 ✺
16.03.26	Kaisar - Astana	0:0 ✺
08.03.26	Kaisar - Zhenis	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WTLTT

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
23.08.25	Kaisar - Atyrau	0:0
25.05.25	Atyrau - Kaisar	1:2
03.08.24	Atyrau - Kaisar	2:2
20.04.24	Kaisar - Atyrau	1:1
22.10.23	Kaisar - Atyrau	1:0
10.03.23	Atyrau - Kaisar	2:1
28.06.21	Atyrau - Kaisar	1:1

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