Match Info

Premier League - Round 2

Date: 16 March 2026, Monday

Location: Centralnyj Stadion (Pavlodar)

Referee: Chekhovsky G. (Kaz)


	Ertis Pavlodar		Atyrau

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.2	2.98
	2.18	3.4	3.08
	2.19	3.36	3	Watch
	2.15	3.1	3
	2.24	3.3	3.17	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↓ (2.37)	3.27 ↑ (3.22)	3.05 ↑ (2.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ertis Pavlodar
41.7%

Draw
28.1%

Atyrau
30.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.2%

28.9%

31.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ertis Pavlodar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Atyrau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.7%	6.7%	6.7%

Ertis Pavlodar - Atyrau Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Ertis will win (votes: 13 - 86.7%). Atyrau will win (votes: 1 - 6.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 6.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ertis: 69.5% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Ertis (1.60) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Ertis Pavlodar will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Ertis (votes: 7 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Botnar V. (G) 27. Nechaev D. 26. Mbodj M. 33. Ibrahim F. 22. Stephen G. 98. Sedko P. 9. Omatay M. 8. Zharynbetov S. 7. Klimovich V. 11. Fedin M. (C) 18. Shvyrev V.	1. Khatkevich E. (G) 2. Tkachenko Y. 78. Khvalko E. 6. Yudenkov R. 5. Satanov S. 17. Kalmuratov K. 14. Dorofeev K. 55. Noyok O. 4. Oinidamola R. 10. Dzhumatov R. (C) 90. Yusov D.
Substitutes
10. Agimanov T. 13. Baybosynov N. 12. Karimov R. 4. Khadarkevich R. 19. Popov A. 14. Raskatov V. 1. Rikhard M. (G) 6. Shimamura Y. 99. Toleubek M. (G) 5. Toleuov B. 17. Turlybek M. 20. Usenov A.	27. Berdesh N. 21. Orynbasar D. 77. Pangerey M. 11. Seytkaliev A. 23. Shaykhov B. 8. Takulov S. 35. Tokhtarov N. (G) 18. Trufanov Y. 88. Yashin D. 9. Zhumabek A. 25. Zhumagali S.
Coaches
Alshevskiy K.	Kabdulov K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 1 - 0, Nechaev D. ⚽, Sedko P. (A),
22', 1 - 1, Dorofeev K. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', Fedin M. 🟨,
63', Dorofeev K. ↓, Trufanov Y. ↑,
67', Fedin M. ↓, Agimanov T. ↑,
75', Ibrahim F. 🟥,
79', Sedko P. ↓, Khadarkevich R. ↑,
79', Omatay M. ↓, Baybosynov N. ↑,
81', Dzhumatov R. ↓, Orynbasar D. ↑,
88', Satanov S. 🟨,
90+3', Shvyrev V. ↓, Turlybek M. ↑,
90+3', Zharynbetov S. ↓, Shimamura Y. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ertis won 4.

Ertis could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ertis won 12 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 24:11. (average 1.2:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Ertis won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:5. (average 1.4:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Ertis Pavlodar	25	6	8	11	26:34	-8	26
15	Atyrau	25	4	11	10	18:28	-10	23

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ertis Pavlodar
Kazakh Premier League
07.03.26	Ordabasy - Ertis Pavlodar	2:2 ✺
Kazakh First League
24.10.25	Batyr Ekibastuz - Ertis Pavlodar	1:2 ✺
17.10.25	Altai Semey - Ertis Pavlodar	1:1 ✺
03.10.25	Ertis Pavlodar - Khan Tengri	7:1 ✺
25.09.25	SD Family - Ertis Pavlodar	2:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 TWTWW
- FC Atyrau
Kazakh Premier League
08.03.26	Atyrau - Ulytau	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
20.02.26	Arsenal Tula - Atyrau	3:1 ✺
05.02.26	Dynamo Makhachkala - Atyrau	3:0 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
26.10.25	Yelimay Semey - Atyrau	3:2 ✺
18.10.25	Atyrau - Zhenis	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 TLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
31.08.19	Atyrau - Ertis Pavlodar	0:3
26.05.19	Ertis Pavlodar - Atyrau	1:0
15.03.19	Atyrau - Ertis Pavlodar	1:3
30.09.18	Ertis Pavlodar - Atyrau	1:0
12.08.18	Atyrau - Ertis Pavlodar	2:0
11.03.18	Ertis Pavlodar - Atyrau	2:1
13.08.17	Atyrau - Ertis Pavlodar	0:0

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