Match Info

Ligue 3 - Round 6

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade de Lattre-de-Tassigny (Aubagne)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Italy	Ligue 1+
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+


	Aubagne		Concarneau

	1	X	2
	2.87	3.00	2.25
	3.45	3.05	1.98
	3.52	3.15	2.29
	2.89	3.23	2.29	Watch
	3.45	3.05	2.20
	3.15	3.05	2.36
	2.95	3.05	2.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.18 ↑ (3.03)	3.08 ↓ (3.29)	2.24 ↑ (2.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aubagne
29%

Draw
29.9%

Concarneau
41.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.2%

27.8%

42%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29%

26.7%

43.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aubagne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Concarneau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

The ML Model estimate for Aubagne aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Concarneau than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Aubagne - Concarneau Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Toure I. (G) 24. Ahamada S. 5. Doucoure R. 26. Nehari M. (C) 23. Aradj Y. 6. Tafni A. 22. Bouaziz W. 27. Sahraoui J. 18. Oudjani A. 10. Cisse K. 9. Zemoura Y.	1. Viot V. (G) 27. Halby J. 6. Seba D. 24. Divialle C. 5. Etcheverria B. 8. Picouleau M. (C) 10. Gbelle G. 22. Macon B. 23. Goujon L. 7. Varvat J. 9. Janno S.
Substitutes
21. Ahamadi M. 20. Bellebrahim A. 19. Doukansy B. 7. Hattab S. 16. Moreira T. (G) 17. Porsan Clemente J. 4. Valme R.	2. Benabdelouahed K. 18. Da Silva F. 40. Patron P. (G) 14. Rosier L. 17. Sidibe A. 26. Sinquin T. 15. Yatera D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 2)
58', 1 - 0, Zemoura Y. ⚽, Cisse K. (A),
63', Seba D. ↓, Da Silva F. ↑,
63', Macon B. ↓, Rosier L. ↑,
63', Varvat J. ↓, Sidibe A. ↑,
66', 🟨,
71', Zemoura Y. ↓, Hattab S. ↑,
71', Tafni A. ↓, Doukansy B. ↑,
79', Doucoure R. ↓, Valme R. ↑,
79', Aradj Y. ↓, Ahamadi M. ↑,
81', Goujon L. ↓, Benabdelouahed K. ↑,
83', Cisse K. ↓, Bellebrahim A. ↑,
87', 1 - 1, Rosier L. ⚽, Janno S. (A),
90+3', 1 - 2, Divialle C. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 10).

Aubagne is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Concarneau has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Concarneau is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Aubagne won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Aubagne won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Concarneau	9	4	4	1	12:8	4	16
16	Aubagne	9	2	1	6	6:12	-6	7

Last Results with these Odds

Aubagne - the odds 3.03 are the expected chance of winning is 30.2%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Aubagne Air Bel
French Ligue 3
05.09.26	Paris 13 Atletico - Aubagne	0:0 ✺
29.08.26	Aubagne - Bourg-Péronnas	2:0 ✺
20.08.26	Caen - Aubagne	1:0 ✺
14.08.26	Aubagne - Bastia	0:1 ✺
07.08.26	Aubagne - Thionville Lusitanos	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 TWLLL
- US Concarneau
French Ligue 3
05.09.26	Concarneau - Thionville Lusitanos	2:2 ✺
29.08.26	Valenciennes - Concarneau	0:0 ✺
20.08.26	Concarneau - Villefranche	2:0 ✺
14.08.26	Quevilly - Concarneau	1:1 ✺
07.08.26	Concarneau - Orleans	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 TTWTL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 3
06.02.26	Concarneau - Aubagne	1:0
29.08.25	Aubagne - Concarneau	1:1
31.01.25	Aubagne - Concarneau	0:2
30.08.24	Concarneau - Aubagne	0:0

Aubagne - Concarneau: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide