Match Info

Date: 5 March 2022, Saturday


	Avaí		Hercílio Luz

	1	X	2
	1.33	4.2	9.25
	1.25	5	8.5
	1.34	4.2	8
	1.31	4.02	8.89
	1.33	4.33	9.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.31 ↓ (1.54)	4.35 ↑ (3.65)	8.83 ↑ (6.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Avaí
69%

Draw
20.8%

Hercílio Luz
10.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.3%

25.5%

14.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.2%

15.7%

23%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Avaí has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Avaí's performance.

Hercílio Luz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (-31.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Avaí that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hercílio Luz than the current prediction. (+12.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hercílio Luz could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Avaí - Hercílio Luz Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 10 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Campeonato Catarinense (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Hercílio Luz could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Avaí is absolute favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Avaí won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Avaí won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Avaí
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
26.02.22	Figueirense - Avaí	4:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
22.02.22	URT - Avaí	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
19.02.22	Avaí - Concórdia	2:1 ✺
16.02.22	Camboriú - Avaí	1:0 ✺
12.02.22	Avaí - Joinville	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LTWLT
- Hercílio Luz FC
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
26.02.22	Hercílio Luz - Chapecoense	3:0 ✺
19.02.22	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Hercílio Luz	0:0 ✺
16.02.22	Barra Santa Catarina - Hercílio Luz	1:0 ✺
13.02.22	Hercílio Luz - Camboriú	1:0 ✺
09.02.22	Concórdia - Hercílio Luz	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 WTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
18.04.21	Avaí - Hercílio Luz	2:0
10.03.19	Hercílio Luz - Avaí	1:0
23.01.19	Avaí - Hercílio Luz	3:0
08.03.18	Avaí - Hercílio Luz	0:1
24.01.18	Hercílio Luz - Avaí	0:1

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