Match Info

Serie B - Round 11

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Dr. Aderbal Ramos da Silva (Ressacada) (Florianópolis)

Referee: Pereira R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT, Disney+, ESPN


	Avaí		Criciúma

	1	X	2
	2.75	2.85	2.75	Watch
	2.35	3	2.9
	2.72	2.88	2.72	Watch
	2.89	2.98	2.9
	2.82	2.76	2.98	Watch
	2.75	2.8	2.7
	2.92	2.87	2.64	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.74 ↑ (2.34)	2.88 ↓ (2.98)	2.8 ↓ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Avaí
34.1%

Draw
32.5%

Criciúma
33.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.9%

31.3%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.9%

31.3%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Avaí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Avaí's form might have worsened.

Criciúma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Avaí, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Criciúma than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	57.1%	14.3%

Avaí - Criciúma Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Avaí will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%). Criciúma will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 57.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 31.2% – 83%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Leo Aragao (G) 52. Wesley Gasolina 4. Gabriel Simples 15. Guilherme Aquino 36. DG (C) 95. Wenderson 25. Paulo Vitor 8. Luiz Henrique 43. Thayllon 57. Walace Franca 11. Sorriso	70. Pedro Santos (G) 37. Cesar Martins 3. Rodrigo (C) 4. Luciano Castan 97. Willean Lepo 8. Gui Lobo 5. Eduardo 22. Marcelo Hermes 91. Otero R. 7. Fellipe Mateus 13. Waguininho
Substitutes
39. Brazil C. 6. Cabral N. 18. Hyan 20. Isaias 16. Jamerson 50. Joao Maistro 90. Kevin 21. Otavio Passos (G) 66. Quaresma 5. Romildo Del Piage 2. Wallison	1. Alisson (G) 34. Bruno Alves 77. Diego Goncalves 26. Heitor Roca 31. Hiago Alves 41. Jean Irmer 21. Joao Carlos 6. Marcinho 9. Nicolas 43. Ruan Carvalho 50. Thiaguinho
Coaches
Cauan de Almeida	Eduardo Baptista

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
39', 0 - 1, Otero R. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
47', 0 - 2, Fellipe Mateus ⚽,
49', 1 - 2, Paulo Vitor ⚽, DG (A),
55', DG ↓, Wallison ↑,
64', Otero R. 🟨,
67', Otero R. ↓, Joao Carlos ↑,
67', Gui Lobo ↓, Jean Irmer ↑,
69', Gabriel Simples 🟨,
76', Eduardo ↓, Diego Goncalves ↑,
76', Waguininho ↓, Nicolas ↑,
79', Walace Franca ↓, Isaias ↑,
79', Wenderson ↓, Hyan ↑,
80', Sorriso ↓, Jamerson ↑,
81', Joao Carlos 🟨,
84', Wesley Gasolina 🟨,
90+2', Isaias ↓, Brazil C. ↑,
90+5', Jean Irmer ↓, Thiaguinho ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 15 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Avaí won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Criciúma may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Avaí: Avenatti F. (Inactive) Daniel Penha (Red Card) Jean Lucas (Yellow Cards) Jefferson Maciel (Injury)

There will not play in Criciúma: Alisson (Heel Injury) Octavio Henrique (Muscle Injury) Yuri Tanque (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in Avaí: Pedro Cuiaba (Inactive) Ze Ricardo (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Avaí won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 23:25. (average 1.2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Avaí won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 14:17. (average 1.2:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Criciuma	31	15	8	8	33:27	6	53
17	Avai	32	9	6	17	32:43	-11	33

Last Results with these Odds

Criciúma - the odds 3.25 are the expected chance of winning is 28.74%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Avaí
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
27.05.26	Avaí - Volta Redonda	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
24.05.26	Avaí - Goiás	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
20.05.26	Volta Redonda - Avaí	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
17.05.26	Vila Nova - Avaí	2:0 ✺
10.05.26	Avaí - Fortaleza	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WLTLT
- Criciúma EC
Brazilian Serie B
24.05.26	Operário Ferroviario - Criciúma	1:1 ✺
17.05.26	Criciúma - Atlético Goianiense	1:1 ✺
09.05.26	Juventude - Criciúma	0:0 ✺
02.05.26	Cuiabá - Criciúma	1:1 ✺
26.04.26	Criciúma - CRB Maceio	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 TTTTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
11.01.26	Criciúma - Avaí	2:1
Brazilian Serie B
19.10.25	Avaí - Criciúma	1:1
27.06.25	Criciúma - Avaí	1:2
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
22.02.25	Avaí - Criciúma	0:3
12.02.24	Avaí - Criciúma	2:3
Brazilian Serie B
05.08.23	Avaí - Criciúma	1:0
28.04.23	Criciúma - Avaí	1:0

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