Match Info

NPL Victoria - Round 1

Date: 13 February 2026, Friday

Location: Avenger park (Melbourne)


	Avondale		South Melbourne

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.28	3.4	2.62	Watch
	2.37	3.65	2.75
	2.27	3.77	2.75	Watch
	2.3	3.3	2.63
	2.25	3.44	2.73	Watch
	2.28	3.6	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↑ (1.68)	3.53 ↓ (3.97)	2.68 ↓ (4.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Avondale
39.9%

Draw
25.9%

South Melbourne
34.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.8%

23.2%

22%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Avondale has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Avondale's form might have worsened.

South Melbourne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting South Melbourne's recent form is better than expected.

Avondale - South Melbourne Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Avondale (1.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Avondale (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
32', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
76', 0 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Avondale won 4.

Avondale may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Avondale won 13 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 46:24. (average 2.3:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Avondale won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 24:14. (average 2.2:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Avondale FC
Australian Championship
21.11.25	Avondale - Moreton City Excelsior	1:3 ✺
14.11.25	Avondale - Preston Lions	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	Avondale - North West Sydney Spirit	1:0 ✺
31.10.25	Canberra Croatia - Avondale	1:4 ✺
24.10.25	Preston Lions - Avondale	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LTWWT
- South Melbourne FC
OFC Pro League
07.02.26	South Melbourne - Vanuatu United	5:2 ✺
04.02.26	Bula - South Melbourne	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	South Island United - South Melbourne	3:3 ✺
Australian Championship
05.12.25	South Melbourne - Marconi Stallions	2:0 ✺
28.11.25	South Melbourne - Heidelberg United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Australian NPL Victoria
17.08.25	South Melbourne - Avondale	0:5
03.05.25	Avondale - South Melbourne	4:0
10.08.24	Avondale - South Melbourne	1:1
04.05.24	South Melbourne - Avondale	1:3
10.09.23	Avondale - South Melbourne	4:0
12.08.23	Avondale - South Melbourne	2:1
07.05.23	South Melbourne - Avondale	3:0

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