Match Info

Australian Championship - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 21 November 2025, Friday

Location: Avenger park (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	SBS On Demand
Hong-kong	HOY TV


	Avondale		Moreton City Excelsior

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.47	4.55	5.85	Watch
	1.37	5.05	7.17	Watch
	1.37	5	7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↓ (1.41)	4.87 ↑ (4.5)	6.67 ↑ (5.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Avondale
66.7%

Draw
19.2%

Moreton City Excelsior
14%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

64.1%

20.1%

15.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.1%

19.2%

15.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Avondale has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Moreton City Excelsior has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avondale than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Moreton City Excelsior than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Avondale - Moreton City Excelsior Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.75, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 2nd Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 5.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 3)
52', 🟥,
59', 0 - 1, ⚽,
64', 0 - 2, ⚽,
67', 0 - 3, ⚽,
80', 1 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

Avondale is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Moreton City has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Avondale may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Avondale is the obvious favorite.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Avondale FC
Australian Championship
14.11.25	Avondale - Preston Lions	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	Avondale - North West Sydney Spirit	1:0 ✺
31.10.25	Canberra Croatia - Avondale	1:4 ✺
24.10.25	Preston Lions - Avondale	0:0 ✺
19.10.25	North West Sydney Spirit - Avondale	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 TWWTT
- Moreton City Excelsior
Australian Championship
14.11.25	Moreton City Excelsior - South Melbourne	3:3 ✺
07.11.25	Sydney Olympic - Moreton City Excelsior	3:3 ✺
01.11.25	Moreton City Excelsior - Broadmeadow Magic	5:1 ✺
25.10.25	Moreton City Excelsior - Sydney Olympic	1:2 ✺
19.10.25	South Melbourne - Moreton City Excelsior	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 TTWLL

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Avondale FC
Australian Championship
24.10.26	Avondale - Broadmeadow Magic	✺

Avondale - Moreton City Excelsior: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide