The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Ayr United 64.9%
Draw 20.7%
Alloa Athletic 14.4%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
57.3%
22.3%
20.4%
Our Initial ML Estimation
59.9%
21.3%
19.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ayr United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ayr United's performance.
Alloa Athletic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alloa Athletic might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ayr United than the current prediction. (-5%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alloa Athletic than the current prediction. (+5.1%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alloa Athletic could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Ayr United - Alloa Athletic Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Stone H. (G) 32. Watret D. 5. Holt K. 20. McBeth L. 3. Dick L. 16. Summers B. 6. Lyon R. (C) 22. McKenzie M. 10. Shanks K. 7. Stirton O. 25. Mitchell K.
1. Stewart R. (G) 24. Foster O. 2. Taggart S. (C) 16. Ellison J. 20. O'Donnell C. 12. Scougall S. 4. Hetherington S. 7. Glasgow K. 6. Marchant G. 17. Cameron M. 11. Gallagher C.
Substitutes
18. Hislop J. 8. King L. 15. Murphy J. 38. Russell L. (G) 11. Taylor R. 21. Walker E. 4. Want S. 26. Warbrick M.
25. Bruin L. 19. Buchanan S. 5. Easdon L. 31. Green L. (G) 14. McCafferty F. 26. O'Connor A. 18. Pettifer A. 10. Rankin L. 15. Walker J.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (3 - 0)
15', 1 - 0, Stirton O. ⚽,
18', 2 - 0, Shanks K. (Penalty Awarded),
34', Ellison J. 🟨,
38', 3 - 0, Stirton O. ⚽, Shanks K. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Dick L. ↓, King L. ↑,
59', 3 - 1, O'Donnell C. ⚽,
65', Taggart S. (Penalty Awarded),
68', Gallagher C. ↓, Rankin L. ↑,
68', Scougall S. ↓, Pettifer A. ↑,
68', Shanks K. ↓, Murphy J. ↑,
68', Watret D. ↓, Taylor R. ↑,
78', Marchant G. ↓, Buchanan S. ↑,
78', Cameron M. ↓, Walker J. ↑,
78', Summers B. ↓, Warbrick M. ↑,
84', 4 - 1, Murphy J. ⚽, Stirton O. (A),
87', Mitchell K. ↓, Hislop J. ↑,
Preview
Ayr is Qualified for League Cup (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ayr won 4.
Ayr has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).
Alloa's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Alloa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Recently, Alloa has had a series of home games.
In this match, Ayr is the clear favorite.
We predict that Ayr will win today's game, with odds of 1.43.
In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Ayr won 10 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 39:20. (average 2.3:1.2).
Including home matches between the teams, Ayr won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 21:9. (average 2.6:1.1).
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Stone H. (G) 
Hetherington S. 
Warbrick M. 
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