Match Info

Championship - Round 21

Date: 10 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: Somerset Park (Ayr)


	Ayr United		Queens Park

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.25	4.33	Watch
	1.49	3.9	5.25
	1.8	3.4	4.35
	1.84	3.35	4.82
	1.79	3.42	4.67	Watch
	1.85	3.1	4.4
	1.85	3.43	4.57	Watch
	1.5	4.2	5.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↑ (1.51)	3.51 ↓ (4.12)	4.76 ↓ (5.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ayr United
53.8%

Draw
26.6%

Queens Park
19.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.7%

22.6%

15.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.6%

21.9%

15.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ayr United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ayr United's form might have worsened.

Queens Park has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ayr United than the current prediction. (+9.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ayr United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Queens Park than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	12.5%	12.5%

Ayr United - Queens Park Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Ayr will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Queens Park will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ayr: 45% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Queens Park (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Queens Park (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Thompson M. (G) 55. Finney G. 20. King L. 5. Holt K. 33. McMann S. 8. Dempsey B. (C) 22. McKenzie M. 16. Summers B. 14. Ure K. 7. Dowds A. 9. Oakley G.	1. Ferrie C. (G) 12. Pignatiello C. 4. Murray E. (C) 22. Shiels M. 3. Fieldson H. 26. Martin S. 7. Longridge L. 11. Connolly A. 28. Drozd S. 27. Smith C. 77. Todorov N.
Substitutes
6. Bannigan S. 3. Dick L. 18. Hislop J. 29. McRoberts L. 23. Rus M. 38. Russell L. (G) 12. Turley F. 4. Want S.	20. Bradley J. 35. Lamie R. 25. MacKenzie M. 21. McLean R. 29. McLeish L. 9. Ruth M. 16. Waugh R. 30. Wills J. (G)
Coaches
Brown S.	Crighton S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
35', Dempsey B. 🟨,
39', McMann S. ↓, Dick L. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
58', 0 - 1, Smith C. ⚽, Fieldson H. (A),
58', Oakley G. ↓, Rus M. ↑,
59', Summers B. ↓, Turley F. ↑,
60', King L. ↓, Want S. ↑,
73', Todorov N. ↓, Ruth M. ↑,
81', Smith C. ↓, Lamie R. ↑,
83', 1 - 1, Dempsey B. ⚽, Rus M. (A),
85', Dick L. 🟨,
88', 1 - 2, Ruth M. ⚽, Shiels M. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ayr won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Ayr is the obvious favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ayr won 11 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 44:25. (average 2.2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Ayr won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 21:11. (average 2.3:1.2).

Outrights of Scottish Football Championship for now

Ayr: 1.52% Queen's Park: 0.53%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Ayr	9	3	2	4	9:10	-1	11
9	Queen's Park	8	1	1	6	4:13	-9	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ayr United
Scottish Football Championship
03.03.26	Arbroath - Ayr United	1:1 ✺
28.02.26	St. Johnstone - Ayr United	3:1 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
24.02.26	Ayr United - Inverness	1:2 ✺
Scottish Football Championship
21.02.26	Ayr United - Ross County	0:0 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
17.02.26	St. Johnstone - Ayr United	3:4 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 TLLTW
- Queens Park FC
Scottish Football Championship
07.03.26	Queens Park - Airdrieonians	1:0 ✺
28.02.26	Dunfermline Athletic - Queens Park	1:0 ✺
24.02.26	Queens Park - St. Johnstone	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Queens Park - Greenock Morton	3:2 ✺
14.02.26	Ross County - Queens Park	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.1 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Football Championship
25.10.25	Queens Park - Ayr United	0:0
30.08.25	Ayr United - Queens Park	1:1
26.04.25	Ayr United - Queens Park	2:2
04.03.25	Queens Park - Ayr United	2:3
16.11.24	Ayr United - Queens Park	3:2
21.09.24	Queens Park - Ayr United	1:1
23.03.24	Ayr United - Queens Park	1:2

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