Match Info

NORWAY: Division 3 - Group 3 - Round 16

Date: 12 August 2024, Monday


	Bærum		Sarpsborg 2

	1	X	2
	1.87	3.98	3.43
	1.85	4.16	3.25	Watch
	1.83	4	3
	1.87	4.3	3.21
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↑ (1.37)	4.11 ↓ (5.3)	3.22 ↓ (5.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.00

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bærum
49.3%

Draw
22.3%

Sarpsborg 2
28.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.6%

17.2%

16.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.1%

15.9%

15%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bærum has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bærum's form might have worsened.

Sarpsborg 2 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sarpsborg 2's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bærum than the current prediction. (+22.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bærum, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sarpsborg 2 than the current prediction. (-13.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sarpsborg 2, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Bærum - Sarpsborg 2 Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Bærum will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Sarpsborg 2 will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 2)
58', 1 - 0, Bransdal L. ⚽,
70', 1 - 1, Svenningsen-Gronn S. ⚽,
75', 1 - 2, Job D. ⚽,
83', 2 - 2, Markovic O. ⚽,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in a tournament table (ranked 5 and 6).

Bærum in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Sarpsborg 2 is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Bærum is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Bærum to win the game is with odds 1.44.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Bærum won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bærum Sportsklubb
Norwegian Division 3 - Group 3
15.07.24	KFUM-Kameratene Oslo 2 - Bærum	2:2 ✺
06.07.24	Bærum - Mjøndalen 2	4:3 ✺
29.06.24	Skeid 2 - Bærum	1:5 ✺
21.06.24	Bærum - Åssiden	2:0 ✺
15.06.24	Flint - Bærum	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 TWWWW
- Sarpsborg 2
Norwegian Division 3 - Group 3
13.07.24	Sarpsborg 2 - Ullern	1:1 ✺
08.07.24	Asker Fotball - Sarpsborg 2	4:2 ✺
29.06.24	Sarpsborg 2 - Nordstrand	1:0 ✺
22.06.24	Gamle Oslo - Sarpsborg 2	2:0 ✺
15.06.24	Sarpsborg 2 - Frigg Oslo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 TLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Norwegian Division 3 - Group 3
13.05.24	Sarpsborg 2 - Bærum	2:0

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