Match Info

I Lyga - Round 12

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Lithuania	LNK


	BFA Vilnius		Jonava

	1	X	2
	2.38	3.3	2.58	Watch
	2.41	3.4	2.61
	2.56	3.08	2.65	Watch
	2.45	3	2.5
	2.47	3.7	2.47	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↑ (2.37)	3.3 ↑ (3.13)	2.56 ↓ (2.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

BFA Vilnius
37%

Draw
27.6%

Jonava
35.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.1%

28.9%

33%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.2%

28.2%

33.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

BFA Vilnius has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Jonava has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for BFA Vilnius than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jonava than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

BFA Vilnius - Jonava Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
90+1', 1 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 9 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, BFA won 3.

Recent performances by BFA have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Jonava is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Jonava may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, BFA won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:10. (average 1.4:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, BFA won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	BFA Vilnius	25	13	4	8	39:35	4	43
11	Jonava	25	7	6	12	28:33	-5	27

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- BFA Vilnius
Lithuanian Division 2
22.05.26	Žalgiris Vilnius 2 - BFA Vilnius	3:4 ✺
Lithuanian Cup
19.05.26	BFA Vilnius - Garliava	2:1 ✺
Lithuanian Division 2
16.05.26	BFA Vilnius - Atmosfera Mažeikiai	0:5 ✺
09.05.26	BFA Vilnius - Garliava	1:2 ✺
01.05.26	Babrungas Plungė - BFA Vilnius	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WWLLL
- FK Jonava
Lithuanian Division 2
22.05.26	Jonava - Babrungas Plungė	1:1 ✺
16.05.26	Tauras Tauragė - Jonava	2:0 ✺
08.05.26	Jonava - Neptūnas	0:1 ✺
02.05.26	Dainava Alytus - Jonava	3:0 ✺
Lithuanian Cup
29.04.26	Jonava - FA Šiauliai	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Lithuanian Division 2
26.07.25	BFA Vilnius - Jonava	0:0
15.03.25	Jonava - BFA Vilnius	0:1
07.10.23	Jonava - BFA Vilnius	0:3
21.05.23	BFA Vilnius - Jonava	2:1
27.08.21	Jonava - BFA Vilnius	6:0
21.08.20	Jonava - BFA Vilnius	3:1
04.08.19	Jonava - BFA Vilnius	0:3

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