Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - League phase - Round 2

Date: 24 October 2024, Thursday

Location: TSC Arena (Bačka Topola)

Referee: Weinberger J. (Aut)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 6, Moja TV
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Elisa Viihde Sport, Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 13
Iceland	Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect
Montenegro	Arena Premium 1
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 1
Norway	Viaplay
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 2
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 16
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1
Thailand	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 15
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK
Usa	Paramount+
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	Disney+


	Bačka Topola		Legia Warsaw

	1	X	2
	3.7	3.7	1.91
	3.5	3.6	1.88
	3.6	3.75	1.95
	3.87	3.81	1.95
	3.54	3.88	1.91	Watch
	3.81	3.89	1.94
	3.6	3.75	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.66 ↑ (3.2)	3.77 ↑ (3.2)	1.93 ↓ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bačka Topola
25.8%

Draw
25.1%

Legia Warsaw
49.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.2%

41.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.5%

29.9%

42.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bačka Topola has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Legia Warsaw has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Legia Warsaw's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bačka Topola than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Legia Warsaw, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	9.8%	90.2%

Bačka Topola - Legia Warsaw Predictions

Users Predictions: 41 users predict this event. Legia will win (votes: 37 - 90.2%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 9.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Legia: 81.1% – 99.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Ilic V. (C) 31. Capan L. 5. Stevanovic D. 4. Krstic V. 22. Jovanovic S. 6. Pejic A. 18. Banjac M. 7. Radin M. 14. Stanic P. 10. Cirkovic A. 27. Pantovic M.	1. Tobiasz K. (G) 13. Wszolek P. 12. Pankov R. 3. Kapuadi S. 19. Vinagre R. 67. Kapustka B. (C) 8. Augustyniak R. 25. Morishita R. 11. Chodyna K. 28. Gual M. 82. Luquinhas
Substitutes
3. Bagnack M. 35. Djakovac I. 25. Djordjevic M. 24. Gordic D. 23. Jorgic N. (G) 8. Jovanovic S. 9. Lazetic M. 29. Mboungou V. 11. Milosavljevic I. 30. Petrovic N. 1. Simic N. (G) 88. Sos B.	80. Adkonis J. 17. Alfarela M. 21. Celhaka J. 5. Goncalves C. 55. Jedrzejczyk A. 27. Kobylak G. (G) 23. Kun P. 77. Nsame J. 7. Pekhart T. 42. Sergio Barcia 71. Szczepaniak M. 24. Ziolkowski J.
Coaches
Damjanovic J.	Feio G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
11', 0 - 1, Kapustka B. ⚽, Luquinhas (A),
45', Radin M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Pankov R. ↓, Ziolkowski J. ↑,
47', 0 - 2, Luquinhas ⚽,
52', Kapustka B. 🟨,
60', Pejic A. ↓, Djakovac I. ↑,
60', Pantovic M. ↓, Jovanovic S. ↑,
62', Capan L. 🟨,
62', 0 - 3, Chodyna K. ⚽, Vinagre R. (A),
67', Banjac M. 🟨,
68', Augustyniak R. ↓, Celhaka J. ↑,
68', Luquinhas ↓, Alfarela M. ↑,
69', Gual M. ↓, Pekhart T. ↑,
72', Ziolkowski J. 🟨,
73', Banjac M. ↓, Sos B. ↑,
80', Morishita R. ↓, Goncalves C. ↑,
82', Krstic V. 🟨,
88', Stanic P. ↓, Lazetic M. ↑,
88', Cirkovic A. ↓, Milosavljevic I. ↑,
90+4', Chodyna K. 🟨,

Preview

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Legia will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in Bačka Topola: Kuveljic N. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Legia: Celhaka J. (Injury) Elitim J. (Knee Injury) Goncalves C. (Injury) Kapuadi S. (Yellow Cards) Leszczynski J. (Knee Injury) Mustafaev R. (Knee Injury) Sergio Barcia (Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- TSC Bačka Topola
Serbian Superliga
18.10.24	Bačka Topola - Radnički 1923	0:2 ✺
06.10.24	Bačka Topola - Jedinstvo Ub	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
03.10.24	Astana - Bačka Topola	1:0 ✺
Serbian Superliga
28.09.24	Čukarički - Bačka Topola	1:2 ✺
21.09.24	Bačka Topola - Novi Pazar	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 LWLWW
- Legia Warsaw
Polish Ekstraklasa
18.10.24	Lechia Gdańsk - Legia Warsaw	0:2 ✺
06.10.24	Jagiellonia Białystok - Legia Warsaw	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
03.10.24	Legia Warsaw - Betis	1:0 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
28.09.24	Legia Warsaw - Górnik Zabrze	1:1 ✺
20.09.24	Pogoń Szczecin - Legia Warsaw	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WTWTL

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