Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 3 October 2024, Thursday

Location: Astana Arena (Astana)

Referee: Reitala O. (Fin)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 6, Moja TV
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Elisa Viihde Sport, Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 14
Iceland	Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect
Kazakhstan	Qazsport
Montenegro	Arena Premium 1
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 1
Norway	Viaplay
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 1, Arena Premium 3
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 17
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 14
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK
Usa	Paramount+
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	Disney+


	Astana		Bačka Topola

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.6	5
	1.66	3.6	4.6
	1.68	3.75	5
	1.68	3.97	5.08
	1.68	3.91	4.63	Watch
	1.73	3.5	4.33
	1.71	4.01	4.94
	1.68	3.75	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↓ (1.77)	3.76 ↑ (3.58)	4.82 ↑ (4.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Astana
55.6%

Draw
24.9%

Bačka Topola
19.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.7%

26.1%

21.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.5%

25.2%

20.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Astana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Bačka Topola has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Astana than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bačka Topola than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.5%	4.5%	3%

Astana - Bačka Topola Predictions

Users Predictions: Astana will win (62 of 67 users predict this - 92.54%).
Confidence interval (95%): 86.25% – 98.83%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
93. Condric J. (G) 5. Kazukolovas K. 22. Marochkin A. 45. Amanovic A. 2. Bartolec K. 7. Ebong M. 77. Gripshi N. 6. Vorogovskiy Y. 10. Tomasov M. (C) 9. Geoffrey C. 28. Camara O.	12. Ilic V. (G) 25. Djordjevic M. 5. Stevanovic D. 22. Jovanovic S. 7. Radin M. 30. Petrovic N. (C) 35. Djakovac I. 14. Stanic P. 18. Banjac M. 27. Pantovic M. 10. Cirkovic A.
Substitutes
11. Ahanonu N. F. 21. Astanov E. 72. Basmanov S. 15. Beysebekov A. 4. Bystrov M. 27. Dosmagambetov T. 81. Karimov R. 8. Kuat I. 19. Osei B. 74. Seysen M. (G) 55. Zarutskiy A. (G)	3. Bagnack M. 31. Capan L. 24. Gordic D. 23. Jorgic N. (G) 4. Krstic V. 9. Lazetic M. 29. Mboungou V. 11. Milosavljevic I. 6. Pejic A. 1. Simic N. (G) 88. Sos B.
Coaches
Babayan G.	Damjanovic J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', Jovanovic S. 🟨,
15', 1 - 0, Kazukolovas K. ⚽, Vorogovskiy Y. (A),
39', Radin M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
69', Djakovac I. ↓, Mboungou V. ↑,
72', Geoffrey C. ↓, Karimov R. ↑,
78', Banjac M. ↓, Sos B. ↑,
84', Gripshi N. ↓, Kuat I. ↑,
84', Cirkovic A. ↓, Lazetic M. ↑,
86', Karimov R. 🟨,
90+1', Camara O. ↓, Astanov E. ↑,
90+1', Tomasov M. ↓, Ahanonu N. F. ↑,

Preview

Astana in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Bačka Topola is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Astana could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Astana is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Astana to win the game is with odds 1.7.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Astana
Kazakh Premier League
29.09.24	Zhenis - Astana	1:1 ✺
Kazakh League Cup
25.09.24	Astana - Yelimay Semey	1:0 penalties ✺
Kazakh Premier League
22.09.24	Ordabasy - Astana	2:4 ✺
18.09.24	Kaisar - Astana	0:1 ✺
14.09.24	Astana - Kyzylzhar	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 TWWWW
- TSC Bačka Topola
Serbian Superliga
28.09.24	Čukarički - Bačka Topola	1:2 ✺
21.09.24	Bačka Topola - Novi Pazar	5:2 ✺
15.09.24	Tekstilac Odžaci - Bačka Topola	2:1 ✺
01.09.24	Bačka Topola - Mladost Lučani	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
29.08.24	Bačka Topola - Maccabi Tel Aviv	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWLLL

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