Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 3 October 2024, Thursday

Location: Stadion Wojska Polskiego (Warsaw)

Referee: Pairetto L. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	New World Sport 7
Asia	beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1
Australia	Stan Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3, Moja TV
Canada	DAZN Canada
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Elisa Viihde Sport, Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 11
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 9
Iceland	Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 8
Montenegro	Arena Sport 4
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	DAZN 5
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 2, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 16, Blue Sport 16, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 9
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK
Usa	Paramount+
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	Disney+


	Legia Warsaw		Betis

	1	X	2
	4	3.7	1.83
	3.8	3.4	1.83
	4	3.6	1.85
	4.18	3.7	1.9
	4.14	3.78	1.79	Watch
	3.1	3.6	2
	4.22	3.69	1.89
	4	3.6	1.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.93 ↓ (4.86)	3.63 ↓ (3.81)	1.87 ↑ (1.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Legia Warsaw
23.9%

Draw
25.8%

Betis
50.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.4%

24.7%

56%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.5%

23.5%

58.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Legia Warsaw has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Betis has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Betis might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Legia Warsaw that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Betis than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Betis could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	7.4%	81.5%

Legia Warsaw - Betis Predictions

Users Predictions: Betis will win (21 of 26 users predict this - 80.77%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.62% – 95.92%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tobiasz K. (G) 13. Wszolek P. 12. Pankov R. 3. Kapuadi S. 19. Vinagre R. 11. Chodyna K. 6. Oyedele M. 67. Kapustka B. (C) 82. Luquinhas 7. Pekhart T. 25. Morishita R.	13. Adrian (G) 24. Ruibal A. (C) 6. Natan 32. Mendy N. 15. Perraud R. 4. Johnny Cardoso 16. Altimira S. 9. Avila C. 18. Fornals P. 7. Juanmi 8. Vitor Roque
Substitutes
80. Adkonis J. 17. Alfarela M. 8. Augustyniak R. 21. Celhaka J. 28. Gual M. 55. Jedrzejczyk A. 27. Kobylak G. (G) 23. Kun P. 99. Majchrzak J. 77. Nsame J. 71. Szczepaniak M. 24. Ziolkowski J.	11. Bakambu C. 2. Bellerin H. 38. Diao A. 10. Ezzalzouli A. 46. Flores M. 30. Garcia G. (G) 3. Llorente D. 37. Perez Guerrero D. 21. Roca M. 12. Rodriguez R. 1. Silva R. (G)
Coaches
Feio G.	Pellegrini M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', 1 - 0, Kapuadi S. ⚽, Vinagre R. (A),
27', Luquinhas 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Vitor Roque ↓, Bakambu C. ↑,
58', Avila C. ↓, Ezzalzouli A. ↑,
58', Juanmi ↓, Perez Guerrero D. ↑,
61', Johnny Cardoso 🟨,
62', Pekhart T. ↓, Nsame J. ↑,
62', Luquinhas ↓, Augustyniak R. ↑,
66', Johnny Cardoso ↓, Roca M. ↑,
74', Kapustka B. ↓, Celhaka J. ↑,
74', Fornals P. ↓, Diao A. ↑,
76', Oyedele M. 🟨,
79', Wszolek P. 🟨,
80', Ruibal A. 🟨,
83', Oyedele M. ↓, Jedrzejczyk A. ↑,
83', Chodyna K. ↓, Gual M. ↑,
88', Kapuadi S. 🟨,
90+3', Natan 🟨,
90+4', Perraud R. 🟨,

Preview

Recent matches Legia is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Betis is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Betis could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Betis have a series of home games.

In this match Betis is a favorite.

There will not play in Legia: Elitim J. (Injury)

There will not play in Betis: Carvalho W. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Isco (Leg Injury) Lo Celso G. (Rest) Sabaly Y. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Legia: Jedrzejczyk A. (Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Legia Warsaw
Polish Ekstraklasa
28.09.24	Legia Warsaw - Górnik Zabrze	1:1 ✺
20.09.24	Pogoń Szczecin - Legia Warsaw	1:0 ✺
15.09.24	Legia Warsaw - Raków Częstochowa	0:1 ✺
01.09.24	Legia Warsaw - Motor Lublin	5:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
29.08.24	Drita Gjilan - Legia Warsaw	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 TLLWW
- Real Betis
Spanish LaLiga
29.09.24	Betis - Espanyol	1:0 ✺
26.09.24	Las Palmas - Betis	1:1 ✺
23.09.24	Betis - Mallorca	1:2 ✺
18.09.24	Betis - Getafe	2:1 ✺
13.09.24	Betis - Leganés	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WTLWW

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