Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 - Round 10

Date: 9 November 2025, Sunday


	Badajoz		Llerenense

	1	X	2
	1.52	3.65	5.35
	1.57	3.63	5.75
	1.06	9.72	25.00	Watch
	1.54	3.62	5.69
	1.67	3.45	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↓ (1.82)	4.81 ↑ (3.25)	9.32 ↑ (4.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Badajoz
68.3%

Draw
20.9%

Llerenense
10.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.9%

27.9%

22.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51%

27.3%

21.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Badajoz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Badajoz's performance.

Llerenense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Llerenense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Badajoz than the current prediction. (-17.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Badajoz that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Llerenense than the current prediction. (+10.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Llerenense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Badajoz - Llerenense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', 1 - 0, ⚽,
68', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 13 and 14)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Badajoz won 2.

Badajoz is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Llerenense is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Badajoz may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Badajoz has had a series of away games.

In this match, Badajoz is seen as the favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Badajoz won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:8. (average 1.2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Badajoz won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Badajoz
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
02.11.25	Jerez - Badajoz	0:0 ✺
25.10.25	Pueblonuevo - Badajoz	0:3 ✺
19.10.25	Montijo - Badajoz	1:2 ✺
12.10.25	Moralo - Badajoz	1:0 ✺
04.10.25	Badajoz - Diocesano	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 TWWLW
- AD Llerenense
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
01.11.25	Llerenense - Pueblonuevo	2:0 ✺
26.10.25	Montijo - Llerenense	2:0 ✺
19.10.25	Llerenense - Moralo	0:0 ✺
12.10.25	Diocesano - Llerenense	2:1 ✺
05.10.25	Llerenense - Villafranca	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 WLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
08.06.25	Llerenense - Badajoz	2:0
01.06.25	Badajoz - Llerenense	1:0
01.02.25	Llerenense - Badajoz	1:0
21.09.24	Badajoz - Llerenense	3:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
05.05.24	Badajoz - Llerenense	2:3
07.01.24	Llerenense - Badajoz	2:1

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