Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 1

Date: 28 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: Neo Quimica Arena (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
Mexico	Fanatiz
Usa	Fanatiz


	Corinthians		Bahia

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.5	3.2	Watch
	2.2	3.25	3.2
	2.22	3.25	3.15	Watch
	2.24	3.33	3.35
	2.29	3.4	3.17	Watch
	2.2	3.25	3
	2.28	3.54	3.24	Watch
	2.25	3.25	3.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↑ (2.2)	3.35 ↑ (3.25)	3.21 ↑ (3.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Corinthians
42.3%

Draw
28.2%

Bahia
29.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.3%

28.7%

29.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.7%

29.6%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Corinthians have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	28.6%	14.3%

Corinthians - Bahia Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Corinthians will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Bahia will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Corinthians (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Corinthians (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hugo Souza (G) 2. Matheuzinho 3. Gabriel Paulista 13. Gustavo Henrique (C) 21. Matheus Bidu 8. Garro R. 14. Raniele 7. Breno Bidon 10. Depay M. 19. Carrillo A. 9. Yuri Alberto	1. Ronaldo Strada (G) 2. Gilberto 33. David Duarte 21. Ramos S. 46. Luciano Juba 10. Everton Ribeiro (C) 26. Nicolas Acevedo 6. Jean Lucas 12. Willian Jose 7. Ademir 16. Erick Pulga
Substitutes
49. Andre 5. Andre Ramalho 35. Charles Rigon 61. Dieguinho 40. Felipe Longo (G) 56. Gui Negao 46. Hugo 31. Kayke 20. Milans P. 18. Pedro Raul 23. Pereira M. 11. Vitinho	19. Caio Alexandre 89. Dell 14. Erick 3. Gabriel Xavier 31. Gomez R. 25. Iago Borduchi 34. Joao Paulo (G) 4. Kanu 57. Kaue Junior 15. Michel Araujo 99. Oliveira K. 11. Rodrigo
Coaches
Dorival Junior	Mucke R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
12', 1 - 0, Breno Bidon ⚽, Garro R. (A),
32', 1 - 1, Jean Lucas ⚽, Gilberto (A),
43', Jean Lucas 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 2, Willian Jose (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
49', Erick Pulga 🟨,
54', Raniele 🟨,
62', Breno Bidon 🟨,
63', Depay M. ↓, Vitinho ↑,
64', Garro R. ↓, Andre ↑,
64', Willian Jose ↓, Dell ↑,
64', Carrillo A. ↓, Pereira M. ↑,
64', Erick Pulga ↓, Oliveira K. ↑,
67', Nicolas Acevedo 🟨,
69', Jean Lucas ↓, Erick ↑,
78', Nicolas Acevedo ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
78', Ademir ↓, Michel Araujo ↑,
79', Breno Bidon ↓, Gui Negao ↑,
79', Yuri Alberto ↓, Pedro Raul ↑,
83', Michel Araujo 🟨,
88', Michel Araujo 🟨,
90+4', Matheuzinho 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Corinthians won 2.

Corinthians has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Bahia is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Corinthians may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Corinthians is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Corinthians: Caca (Muscle Injury) Depay M. (Knee Injury) Martinez J. (Inactive)

There will not play in Bahia: Olivera C. (Ankle Injury) Sanabria M. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Corinthians won 9 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 29:24. (average 1.5:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Corinthians won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 22:13. (average 2.2:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Bahia	29	12	10	7	43:36	7	46
16	Corinthians	29	8	8	13	30:34	-4	32

Last Results with these Odds

Corinthians - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 42.27%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Corinthians
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
25.01.26	Velo Clube - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
22.01.26	Santos - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
18.01.26	Corinthians - São Paulo	1:1 ✺
15.01.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Corinthians	3:0 ✺
11.01.26	Corinthians - Ponte Preta	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WTTLW
- EC Bahia
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
25.01.26	Vitória Salvador - Bahia	0:1 ✺
20.01.26	Bahia - Barcelona de Ilhéus	5:1 ✺
17.01.26	Bahia - Galícia	3:0 ✺
14.01.26	Bahia de Feira - Bahia	0:3 ✺
11.01.26	Bahia - Jequié	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
16.08.25	Corinthians - Bahia	1:2
30.03.25	Bahia - Corinthians	1:1
03.12.24	Corinthians - Bahia	3:0
21.07.24	Bahia - Corinthians	0:1
24.11.23	Corinthians - Bahia	1:5
22.07.23	Bahia - Corinthians	0:0
05.10.21	Corinthians - Bahia	3:1

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