Match Info

Cymru Premier - Relegation Group - Round 23

Date: 23 January 2026, Friday

Location: Maes Tegid (Bala)

Referee: Markham-Jones B. (Wal)


	Bala Town		Flint Town United

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.45	2
	3.35	3.7	2.02
	3.2	3.81	2.04	Watch
	3.3	3.4	1.95
	3.49	3.7	1.95
	3.2	3.6	2.03
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.31 ↑ (2.83)	3.61 ↑ (3.25)	2 ↓ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bala Town
28%

Draw
25.7%

Flint Town United
46.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.4%

28.2%

39.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.7%

27.6%

40.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bala Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Flint Town United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Flint Town United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bala Town than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Flint Town United than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Flint Town United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	75%	25%

Bala Town - Flint Town United Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Flint Town will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Torrance J. (G) 5. Bell W. 27. Billington S. 44. Dean H. 4. Digbeu N. 22. Ferguson C. 3. Hall L. 17. Ibrahim O. 99. Mehasseb H. 7. Mendes L. 23. White R.	1. Flint J. (G) 14. Abadaki O. 21. Canavan J. 5. Owen H. 7. Phillips J. 9. Reeves E. 4. Sanogo Fofana S. 34. Stephenson D. 6. Thorn J. 2. Woollam B. 10. Wynne B.
Substitutes
8. Burke N. 21. Fisher C. 11. Higgins L. 16. Kelly T. 6. McGiveron D. 9. Tarasenko J. 20. Tierney A.	26. Ferguson C. 8. Hughes B. 11. Jones J. 41. Morrison L. 15. Purvis M. 13. Szczepaniak D. (G)
Coaches
Fisher S.	Fowler L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 4)
11', 1 - 0, Mendes L. ⚽,
18', 1 - 1, Stephenson D. ⚽,
22', 1 - 2, Wynne B. ⚽,
28', 1 - 3, Owen H. ⚽,
33', 1 - 4, Wynne B. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Mehasseb H. ↓, Higgins L. ↑,
46', Dean H. ↓, Burke N. ↑,
64', 2 - 4, Ferguson C. ⚽,
67', 3 - 4, Higgins L. ⚽,
69', Billington S. ↓, Tarasenko J. ↑,
78', Canavan J. ↓, Hughes B. ↑,
78', Abadaki O. ↓, Jones J. ↑,
84', Higgins L. 🟨,
88', Tarasenko J. 🟨,
90', Hall L. ↓, Fisher C. ↑,
90+1', Ibrahim O. ↓, McGiveron D. ↑,
90+2', Sanogo Fofana S. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bala Town won 3.

Bala Town is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Flint Town has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Flint Town will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Bala Town won 15 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 44:15. (average 2.3:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Bala Town won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 17:4. (average 2.4:0.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Flint	12	2	2	8	12:24	-12	8

Last Results with these Odds

Bala Town - the odds 2.83 are the expected chance of winning is 32.37%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bala Town
Welsh Cymru Premier
13.01.26	Flint Town United - Bala Town	0:4 ✺
06.01.26	The New Saints - Bala Town	2:1 ✺
31.12.25	Bala Town - Caernarfon Town	0:1 ✺
05.12.25	Bala Town - Haverfordwest County	0:2 ✺
29.11.25	Bala Town - Cardiff Metropolitan	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WLLLT
- Flint Town United
Welsh Cymru Premier
13.01.26	Flint Town United - Bala Town	0:4 ✺
01.01.26	Colwyn Bay - Flint Town United	1:2 ✺
26.12.25	Flint Town United - Gap Connahs Quay	0:2 ✺
20.12.25	Flint Town United - Haverfordwest County	2:2 ✺
Welsh FA Cup
13.12.25	Pen-y-Bont - Flint Town United	0:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.2 LWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
13.01.26	Flint Town United - Bala Town	0:4
08.08.25	Bala Town - Flint Town United	1:1
Welsh FA Cup
16.11.24	Flint Town United - Bala Town	2:3 penalties
Welsh Cymru Premier
12.10.24	Flint Town United - Bala Town	2:2
23.08.24	Bala Town - Flint Town United	2:0
Club Friendly
08.07.23	Flint Town United - Bala Town	0:1
Welsh Cymru Premier
02.12.22	Bala Town - Flint Town United	1:0

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