Match Info

Cymru Premier - Round 21

Date: 31 December 2025, Wednesday

Location: Maes Tegid (Bala)

Referee: Livesey A. D. (Eng)


	Bala Town		Caernarfon Town

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.35	2.02
	3.33	3.63	2.05	Watch
	3.3	3.3	2.05
	3.41	3.32	1.98
	3.25	3.5	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.32 ↑ (2.86)	3.42 ↓ (3.65)	2.03 ↓ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bala Town
27.7%

Draw
26.9%

Caernarfon Town
45.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.7%

25.6%

41.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.5%

24.7%

43.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bala Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Caernarfon Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bala Town than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caernarfon Town than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	8.3%	75%

Bala Town - Caernarfon Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Bala Town will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Caernarfon will win (votes: 9 - 81.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Caernarfon: 59% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DNB - Bala Town (2.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Caernarfon Town will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Bala Town (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Caernarfon (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Torrance J. (G) 5. Bell W. 27. Billington S. 44. Dean H. 4. Digbeu N. 3. Hall L. 11. Higgins L. 17. Ibrahim O. 99. Mehasseb H. 10. Owen J. 23. White R.	1. Roberts C. (G) 19. Bradley S. 9. Davies A. 8. Gosset D. 24. Harrison K. 23. Lock J. 7. Mendes P. 5. Mooney P. 2. Owen M. 27. Sears R. 15. Smith D.
Substitutes
77. Beck L. 12. Hunter L. (G) 6. McGiveron D. 7. Mendes L. 29. Smith E. 9. Tarasenko J. 20. Tierney A.	12. Abadaki O. 39. Ellis O. 40. Griffith C. 3. Jones M. 10. Thomas D. 13. Thomas H. (G) 33. Williams C.
Coaches
Fisher S.	Davies R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
43', 0 - 1, Gosset D. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
54', Lock J. 🟨,
69', Ibrahim O. ↓, McGiveron D. ↑,
79', Billington S. ↓, Mendes L. ↑,
89', Higgins L. ↓, Tarasenko J. ↑,
90+1', Lock J. ↓, Thomas D. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 9 in the zone Cymru Premier (Relegation Group: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bala Town won 0.

Bala Town is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Caernarfon has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Bala Town may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Caernarfon is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bala Town won 7 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 35:30. (average 1.8:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Bala Town won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:11. (average 1.9:1.2).

Last Results with these Odds

Caernarfon Town - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 41.72%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bala Town
Welsh Cymru Premier
05.12.25	Bala Town - Haverfordwest County	0:2 ✺
29.11.25	Bala Town - Cardiff Metropolitan	2:2 ✺
15.11.25	Pen-y-Bont - Bala Town	2:1 ✺
07.11.25	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Bala Town	2:0 ✺
31.10.25	Bala Town - Llanelli	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LTLLW
- Caernarfon Town
Welsh Cymru Premier
27.12.25	Caernarfon Town - Colwyn Bay	1:2 ✺
Welsh FA Cup
13.12.25	Cardiff Metropolitan - Caernarfon Town	2:4 ✺
Welsh Cymru Premier
05.12.25	Caernarfon Town - Flint Town United	1:1 ✺
28.11.25	The New Saints - Caernarfon Town	2:0 ✺
Welsh FA Cup
22.11.25	Caernarfon Town - Penrhyncoch	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
25.08.25	Caernarfon Town - Bala Town	2:0
21.03.25	Caernarfon Town - Bala Town	5:0
31.01.25	Bala Town - Caernarfon Town	1:3
11.01.25	Bala Town - Caernarfon Town	0:2
26.08.24	Caernarfon Town - Bala Town	0:0
21.04.24	Caernarfon Town - Bala Town	2:2
08.03.24	Bala Town - Caernarfon Town	1:1

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