Match Info

Liga 1 - Round 31

Date: 1 May 2025, Thursday

Location: Kapten I Wayan Dipta Stadium (Gianyar)

Where to Watch on TV:


India	Vision+
Indonesia	Indosiar, K-Vision, Vidio


	Bali United Pusam		PSIS Semarang

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.9	3.5	3.2
	1.61	3.9	4.5	Watch
	1.64	4	5.32
	1.7	3.78	4.73	Watch
	1.7	3.8	4
	1.66	4.06	4.51	Watch
	1.61	3.9	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↑ (1.66)	3.85 ↓ (4.31)	4.39 ↑ (3.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bali United Pusam
54.9%

Draw
24.1%

PSIS Semarang
21.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.4%

21.3%

23.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.2%

17%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bali United Pusam has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

PSIS Semarang has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bali United Pusam than the current prediction. (-10.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Bali United Pusam that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for PSIS Semarang than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that PSIS Semarang could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	16.7%	33.3%

Bali United Pusam - PSIS Semarang Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Bali United will win (votes: 6 - 60%). Semarang will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bali United: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Bali United (votes: 1 - 25%). Semarang (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Bali United (2.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Bali United (1.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Bali United (votes: 3 - 50%). Semarang (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Adilson Maringa (G) 22. Setiawan N. 44. Arel K. 20. Jaime 24. Fajrin R. 6. Wilson B. 41. Jaya I. 18. Agung K. 47. Arjuna R. 9. Kopitovic B. 10. Marie Privat J. B. M. (C)	30. Satryo A. (G) 25. Ferizal S. 5. Ferrari J. 6. Lucas 31. Syawal R. 14. Ardiansyah R. 16. Apriliansyah R. 68. Setiawan T. 7. Freitas Gali 99. Gustavo Souza 29. David M. (C)
Substitutes
78. Ananta K. 26. Arta K. 99. Everton Nascimento 71. Kamal L. 76. Lanang K. 2. Mannan A. 8. Maruoka M. 5. Nugroho B. 91. Rachmat M. S. 95. Rustapa F. (G) 7. Saimima S. 42. Simon M. A.	3. Alhafiz H. 45. Buddin S. 24. Ramdhani W. 69. Rumbino D. 11. Sudi A. 56. Syuhada R. 26. Trisna S. (G)
Coaches
Teco	Agius G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', Lucas 🟨,
21', 1 - 0, Ferrari J. (Own goal),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Apriliansyah R. ↓, Syuhada R. ↑,
46', Lucas ↓, Rumbino D. ↑,
48', 🟨,
51', 2 - 0, Syuhada R. (Own goal),
56', Arjuna R. ↓, Rachmat M. S. ↑,
66', 3 - 0, Jaya I. ⚽, Agung K. (A),
69', Gustavo Souza ↓, Sudi A. ↑,
69', Syawal R. ↓, Alhafiz H. ↑,
74', Kopitovic B. ↓, Lanang K. ↑,
74', Arel K. ↓, Nugroho B. ↑,
83', Jaya I. ↓, Ananta K. ↑,
83', Agung K. ↓, Kamal L. ↑,
90+2', 4 - 0, Setiawan N. ⚽, Rachmat M. S. (A),

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 9 and 17 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches Bali United won 3.

Bali United has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Semarang is in a cheap shape now (in the last 5 games, wins - 0).

In this match, Bali United is a favorite.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Bali United won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:7 (average 1.3:0.6).

Including matches at home between the teams, Bali United won 4 matches, drew 1 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:2 (average 1.6:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bali United Pusam FC
Indonesian Super League
25.04.25	PSM Makassar - Bali United Pusam	0:1 ✺
18.04.25	Persib Bandung - Bali United Pusam	2:1 ✺
10.04.25	Bali United Pusam - Dewa United	0:0 ✺
11.03.25	Bali United Pusam - PSBS Biak Numfor	0:2 ✺
06.03.25	Persis Solo - Bali United Pusam	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WLTLT
- PSIS Semarang
Indonesian Super League
25.04.25	PSIS Semarang - Borneo Samarinda	2:5 ✺
17.04.25	Semen Padang - PSIS Semarang	3:2 ✺
11.04.25	PSIS Semarang - Persik Kediri	0:0 ✺
16.03.25	PSIS Semarang - Madura United	1:2 ✺
12.03.25	Persebaya Surabaya - PSIS Semarang	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Indonesian Super League
11.12.24	PSIS Semarang - Bali United Pusam	2:1
08.03.24	Bali United Pusam - PSIS Semarang	2:0
02.09.23	PSIS Semarang - Bali United Pusam	2:1
12.04.23	Bali United Pusam - PSIS Semarang	3:2
22.12.22	PSIS Semarang - Bali United Pusam	0:3
20.02.22	PSIS Semarang - Bali United Pusam	0:1
31.10.21	Bali United Pusam - PSIS Semarang	0:0

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