Match Info

Serie D - Round 14

Date: 27 July 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz (Itajaí)


	Barra Santa Catarina		Brasil de Pelotas

	1	X	2
	1.44	3.75	6.5
	1.45	3.65	6.7
	1.48	3.55	7.08
	1.59	3.40	6.36	Watch
	1.45	3.75	6.98
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↓ (1.55)	3.62 ↓ (3.75)	6.72 ↑ (5.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barra Santa Catarina
61.4%

Draw
25.1%

Brasil de Pelotas
13.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.6%

24.2%

17.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.8%

22.9%

16.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barra Santa Catarina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Brasil de Pelotas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barra Santa Catarina than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brasil de Pelotas than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Barra Santa Catarina - Brasil de Pelotas Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Barra (votes: 2 - 50%). Brasil de Pelotas (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

EH -1 - Barra (1.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - Barra (2.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.25 - Brasil de Pelotas (1.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Barra (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Brasil de Pelotas (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
32', 0 - 1, Libania J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/16~finals) and 6).

Barra is Qualified for Serie D (Play Offs 1/16~finals)

Barra is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Brasil de Pelotas has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Brasil de Pelotas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Barra is the undisputed favorite.

We predict that Barra will win today's game, with odds of 1.43.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Barra won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 0.7:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Barra won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barra Santa Catarina
Brazilian Serie D
19.07.25	São Luiz - Barra Santa Catarina	0:2 ✺
14.07.25	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Barra Santa Catarina	1:0 ✺
05.07.25	Barra Santa Catarina - Azuriz	1:0 ✺
30.06.25	Barra Santa Catarina - Joinville	1:0 ✺
21.06.25	Barra Santa Catarina - Guarany de Bagé	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WLWWW
- Brasil de Pelotas
Brazilian Serie D
20.07.25	Brasil de Pelotas - Azuriz	4:0 ✺
13.07.25	EC São José Porto Alegre - Brasil de Pelotas	1:0 ✺
06.07.25	Brasil de Pelotas - São Luiz	0:1 ✺
29.06.25	Guarany de Bagé - Brasil de Pelotas	1:0 ✺
14.06.25	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Brasil de Pelotas	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
19.04.25	Brasil de Pelotas - Barra Santa Catarina	1:0
14.07.24	Barra Santa Catarina - Brasil de Pelotas	2:2
05.06.24	Brasil de Pelotas - Barra Santa Catarina	1:0

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