Match Info
Serie D - Round 6Date: 9 May 2026, SaturdayLocation: Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz (Itajaí)
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Náutico Marcílio Dias |
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Brasil de Pelotas |
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1 |
X |
2 |
|
 |
1.83 |
2.87 |
4.74 |
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 |
1.87 |
2.88 |
4.89 |
 Watch |
 |
1.85 |
2.75 |
4.5 |
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 |
1.82 |
2.88 |
4.92 |
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Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.84 ↑
(1.82) |
2.85 ↓
(3) |
4.76 ↑
(4.6) |
|
- The most likely Over/Under: 1.75
- The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Náutico Marcílio Dias
49.2% | Draw
31.8% | Brasil de Pelotas
19% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Náutico Marcílio Dias has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)Brasil de Pelotas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Marcílio Dias than the current prediction. (+2.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brasil de Pelotas than the current prediction. (+0.1%)Náutico Marcílio Dias - Brasil de Pelotas Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 1', 1 - 0, Davi Torres ⚽,
- 8', 2 - 0, Robinho ⚽,
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 48', 3 - 0, Manoel ⚽,
- 54', 3 - 1, Gabriel Morbeck ⚽,
- 85', 4 - 1, Gabriel Lyra ⚽,
Preview
In recent matches, Marcílio Dias has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).Brasil de Pelotas has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).Brasil de Pelotas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days. In this match, Marcílio Dias is the team to beat.In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marcílio Dias won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:4. (average 1:0.8).Including home matches between the teams, Marcílio Dias won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Brazilian Serie D | | | 02.05.26 | Brasil de Pelotas - Náutico Marcílio Dias | 0:1 | | 14.06.25 | Náutico Marcílio Dias - Brasil de Pelotas | 1:2 | | 25.05.25 | Brasil de Pelotas - Náutico Marcílio Dias | 1:2 | | 28.11.20 | Náutico Marcílio Dias - Brasil de Pelotas | 1:0 | | 19.09.20 | Brasil de Pelotas - Náutico Marcílio Dias | 1:0 |
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Upcoming Matches
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
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