Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 2 - Round 24

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday


	Basconia		Amorebieta

	1	X	2
	2.4	2.98	2.82
	2.67	3	2.65
	2.39	3.01	2.97	Watch
	2.38	2.8	3
	2.38	2.91	2.98
	2.71	3	2.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↑ (2.32)	2.95 ↓ (3.03)	2.83 ↓ (3.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Basconia
36.7%

Draw
31%

Amorebieta
32.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.6%

30.3%

30%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.3%

29.1%

28.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Basconia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Amorebieta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Basconia than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Amorebieta than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Basconia - Amorebieta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 1)
57', 0 - 1, Arratibel B. ⚽,
62', Zarandona T. 🟥,
68', 1 - 1, Urzaiz U. ⚽,
89', Altamira J. 🟥,
90+2', 2 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 12 and 9).

Basconia is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Amorebieta's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Basconia won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Amorebieta - the odds 3.06 are the expected chance of winning is 30.04%, but this team recently wins 18% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Basconia
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
15.02.26	Eibar B - Basconia	1:3 ✺
08.02.26	Basconia - Utebo	4:0 ✺
01.02.26	UD Logroñés - Basconia	2:2 ✺
25.01.26	Basconia - Ebro	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	Real Unión de Irun - Basconia	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 36.3 WWTTW
- SD Amorebieta
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
15.02.26	Amorebieta - Ejea	2:0 ✺
08.02.26	Náxara - Amorebieta	2:2 ✺
31.01.26	Beasain - Amorebieta	0:1 ✺
24.01.26	Amorebieta - Utebo	0:1 ✺
18.01.26	UD Logroñés - Amorebieta	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
05.10.25	Amorebieta - Basconia	2:1

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