Match Info

National League South - Round 38

Date: 10 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: Twerton Park (Bath)


	Bath City		Farnborough

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.4	2.62
	2.27	3.76	2.8
	2.27	3.86	2.7	Watch
	2.25	3.5	2.75
	2.24	3.48	2.73
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↑ (2.05)	3.6 ↓ (3.78)	2.72 ↓ (3.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bath City
40.4%

Draw
25.7%

Farnborough
34%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.2%

24.5%

30.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46%

24.1%

29.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bath City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Farnborough has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bath City than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bath City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Farnborough than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Bath City - Farnborough Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
88', Tillson J. 🟨,
89', 0 - 1, Anthony M. ⚽,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 21 in the zone Relegation and 20).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bath won 2.

Recent form of Bath has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Farnborough has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Bath could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Bath won 9 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 34:19. (average 2.6:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Bath won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:11. (average 2.5:1.8).

Outrights of English National League South for now

Farnborough: 0.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
18	Farnborough	9	3	2	4	8:13	-5	11

Last Results with these Odds

Bath City - the odds 2.05 are the expected chance of winning is 45.25%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Farnborough - the odds 3.07 are the expected chance of winning is 30.21%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bath City
English National League South
07.03.26	Chelmsford City - Bath City	7:1 ✺
03.03.26	Bath City - Slough Town	0:1 ✺
28.02.26	Enfield Town - Bath City	1:1 ✺
24.02.26	Bath City - Weston-super-Mare	0:0 ✺
21.02.26	Bath City - Hampton & Richmond Borough	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLTTL
- Farnborough
English National League South
07.03.26	Farnborough - Hemel Hempstead Town	2:3 ✺
03.03.26	Torquay United - Farnborough	2:2 ✺
28.02.26	Ebbsfleet United - Farnborough	2:2 ✺
25.02.26	Farnborough - Chippenham Town	2:1 ✺
21.02.26	Farnborough - Enfield Town	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 LTTWL

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
04.10.25	Farnborough - Bath City	2:2
18.04.25	Farnborough - Bath City	0:2
01.01.25	Bath City - Farnborough	1:0
09.03.24	Bath City - Farnborough	0:2
25.11.23	Farnborough - Bath City	2:2
28.01.23	Bath City - Farnborough	0:1
27.08.22	Farnborough - Bath City	0:1

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