What is the expert prediction for Bayer Leverkusen vs Hoffenheim?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Bayer Leverkusen vs Hoffenheim. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Bayer Leverkusen vs Hoffenheim Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Saturday, August 23, 2025)

Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 1

Date: 23 August 2025, Saturday

Location: BayArena (Leverkusen)

Referee: Siebert D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 5, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Life
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Setanta Sports 2
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3, Sky Sport Bundesliga 6
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 2
Brazil	SporTV
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	Viaplay
Europe	Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sport 3, Setanta Sports 2
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3, Sky Sport Bundesliga 6, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 3
Hong-kong	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Now Player
Iceland	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
India	Vision+
Indonesia	iNews, K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel, Vidio
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports 2
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 2
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Sky Sport
Moldova	Setanta Sports 2
Mongolia	Premier Sports 3
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	DAZN 3, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Prima Sport 1, Prima TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 7, SportKlub 1
Singapore	beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Sport TV1
South-america	ESPN 5 South
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 3, Sky Sport Bundesliga 6
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 2
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	beIN Connect, S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports Premium
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball


	Bayer Leverkusen		Hoffenheim

	1	X	2
	1.73	4.2	4.1	Watch
	1.51	4.6	5.75
	1.75	4.15	4.25	Watch
	1.76	4.21	4.42
	1.33	5.29	8.18	Watch
	1.5	4.5	5	Watch
	1.74	4.32	4.44	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↑ (1.5)	4.47 ↓ (4.87)	5.16 ↓ (5.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bayer Leverkusen
59.7%

Draw
21.6%

Hoffenheim
18.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.9%

19.7%

16.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.7%

22.1%

14.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bayer Leverkusen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Hoffenheim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+12%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bayer Leverkusen, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hoffenheim than the current prediction. (-4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	11.1%	11.1%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 45 users predict this event. Bayer will win (votes: 35 - 77.8%). Hoffenheim will win (votes: 5 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayer: 65.7% – 89.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH +0.75 - Hoffenheim (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayer Leverkusen will win (13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayer (votes: 13 - 81.3%). Hoffenheim (votes: 2 - 12.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 6.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Flekken M. (G) 4. Quansah J. 12. Tapsoba E. 3. Hincapie P. 13. Arthur 24. Garcia A. 8. Andrich R. (C) 20. Grimaldo A. 30. Maza I. 23. Tella N. 14. Schick P.	1. Baumann O. (C) 34. Coufal V. 2. Hranac R. 28. Machida K. 13. Bernardo 27. Kramaric A. 7. Avdullahu L. 18. Burger W. 29. Toure B. 19. Lemperle T. 11. Asllani F.
Substitutes
28. Blaswich J. (G) 9. Echeverri C. 35. Kofane C. M. 36. Lomb N. (G) 27. Mensah J. 26. Natali A. 19. Poku E. 18. Sarco A. 16. Tape A.	25. Akpoguma K. 35. Arthur Chaves 10. Damar M. 33. Moerstedt M. 24. Mokwa Ntusu D. 37. Philipp L. (G) 22. Prass A. 6. Promel G. 17. Tohumcu U.
Coaches
ten Hag E.	Ilzer C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', 1 - 0, Quansah J. ⚽, Grimaldo A. (A),
25', 1 - 1, Asllani F. ⚽, Toure B. (A),
37', Kramaric A. 🟨,
42', Machida K. 🟨,
45+1', Machida K. ↓, Arthur Chaves ↑,
45+2', Avdullahu L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Arthur ↓, Poku E. ↑,
46', Burger W. ↓, Tohumcu U. ↑,
52', 1 - 2, Lemperle T. ⚽, Asllani F. (A),
75', Hranac R. ↓, Akpoguma K. ↑,
75', Lemperle T. ↓, Prass A. ↑,
84', Tohumcu U. 🟨,
84', Maza I. ↓, Echeverri C. ↑,
85', Tella N. ↓, Kofane C. M. ↑,
88', Coufal V. ↓, Promel G. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bayer won 5.

Bayer is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Hoffenheim is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Hoffenheim may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Bayer has had a series of away games.

In this match, Bayer is the team to beat.

There will not play in Bayer: Belocian J. (Knee Injury) Hofmann J. (Muscle Injury) Palacios E. (Muscle Injury) Terrier M. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Tillman M. (Injury)

There will not play in Hoffenheim: Gendrey V. (Ankle Injury) Hlozek A. (Broken Leg) Kabak O. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Bayer: Bade L. (Calf Injury)

We predict that Bayer will win today's game, with odds of 1.54.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bayer won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 37:33. (average 1.9:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Bayer won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:18. (average 1.6:1.8).

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bayer Leverkusen
German DFB Pokal
15.08.25	Sonnenhof Großaspach - Bayer Leverkusen	0:4 ✺
Club Friendly
08.08.25	Chelsea - Bayer Leverkusen	2:0 ✺
05.08.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Pisa	3:0 ✺
01.08.25	Fortuna Sittard - Bayer Leverkusen	1:2 ✺
27.07.25	Bochum - Bayer Leverkusen	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WLWWW
- TSG Hoffenheim
German DFB Pokal
16.08.25	Hansa Rostock - Hoffenheim	0:4 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.25	Werder Bremen - Hoffenheim	0:3 ✺
01.08.25	Werder Bremen - Hoffenheim	0:1 ✺
26.07.25	Hoffenheim - Darmstadt	3:1 ✺
23.07.25	Hoffenheim - Homburg	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
02.02.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Hoffenheim	3:1
14.09.24	Hoffenheim - Bayer Leverkusen	1:4
30.03.24	Bayer Leverkusen - Hoffenheim	2:1
04.11.23	Hoffenheim - Bayer Leverkusen	2:3
11.02.23	Hoffenheim - Bayer Leverkusen	1:3
20.08.22	Bayer Leverkusen - Hoffenheim	0:3
07.05.22	Hoffenheim - Bayer Leverkusen	2:4

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