Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 16

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday

Location: BayArena (Leverkusen)

Referee: Zwayer F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Bayer Leverkusen		Stuttgart

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.75	3.1	Watch
	2.18	3.7	3.05	Watch
	2	3.87	3.37
	2.17	3.76	3.12	Watch
	2.1	3.5	3.1	Watch
	2.17	3.8	3.28	Watch
	2.2	3.66	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↑ (1.93)	3.72 ↓ (4.06)	3.16 ↓ (3.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bayer Leverkusen
44.4%

Draw
25.5%

Stuttgart
30.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.3%

23.4%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.5%

23.3%

27.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bayer Leverkusen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Stuttgart has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bayer Leverkusen, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stuttgart than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	15.7%	12.9%

Bayer Leverkusen - Stuttgart Predictions

Users Predictions: 70 users predict this event. Bayer will win (votes: 50 - 71.4%). Stuttgart will win (votes: 9 - 12.9%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 15.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayer: 60.8% – 82%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Bayer (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Stuttgart (1.70) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Stuttgart (1.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayer Leverkusen will win (19 of 25 users predict this - 76%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 29 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayer (votes: 20 - 69%). Stuttgart (votes: 6 - 20.7%). Tie (votes: 3 - 10.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Flekken M. (G) 4. Quansah J. 8. Andrich R. (C) 44. Belocian J. 13. Arthur 24. Garcia A. 6. Fernandez E. 20. Grimaldo A. 10. Tillman M. 23. Tella N. 11. Terrier M.	33. Nubel A. (G) 4. Vagnoman J. 3. Hendriks R. 24. Chabot J. 7. Mittelstadt M. 16. Karazor A. (C) 6. Stiller A. 18. Leweling J. 28. Nartey N. 10. Fuhrich C. 26. Undav D.
Substitutes
5. Bade L. 28. Blaswich J. (G) 42. Culbreath M. 7. Hofmann J. 36. Lomb N. (G) 21. Lucas 19. Poku E. 18. Sarco A.	30. Andres C. 22. Assignon L. 27. Bouanani B. 1. Bredlow F. (G) 9. Demirovic E. 29. Jeltsch F. 25. Jeremy Arevalo 15. Stenzel P. 20. Stergiou L.
Coaches
Hjulmand K.	Hoeness S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 4)
7', 0 - 1, Leweling J. ⚽, Undav D. (A),
29', 0 - 2, Mittelstadt M. (Penalty Awarded),
38', Leweling J. 🟨,
38', Flekken M. 🟨,
45', 0 - 3, Leweling J. ⚽, Undav D. (A),
45+2', 0 - 4, Undav D. ⚽, Fuhrich C. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Tella N. ↓, Poku E. ↑,
46', Belocian J. ↓, Bade L. ↑,
66', 1 - 4, Grimaldo A. (Penalty Awarded),
66', Terrier M. ↓, Sarco A. ↑,
66', Fernandez E. ↓, Hofmann J. ↑,
70', Bade L. 🟨,
72', Fuhrich C. ↓, Jeltsch F. ↑,
77', Jeltsch F. 🟨,
79', Grimaldo A. 🟨,
79', Vagnoman J. ↓, Assignon L. ↑,
79', Leweling J. ↓, Jeremy Arevalo ↑,
80', Garcia A. 🟨,
82', Grimaldo A. ↓, Lucas ↑,
89', Undav D. ↓, Demirovic E. ↑,
89', Nartey N. ↓, Andres C. ↑,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bayer won 3.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Bayer may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Stuttgart has had a series of home games.

Bayer is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Bayer: Ben Seghir E. (International duty) Kofane C. (International duty) Maza I. (International duty) Palacios E. (Groin Injury) Tapsoba E. (Rest)

There will not play in Stuttgart: El Khannouss B. (International duty) Jaquez L. (Thigh Injury) Tomas T. (Muscle Injury) Zagadou D. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Stuttgart: Jeltsch F. (Thigh Injury) Jovanovic L. (Back Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bayer won 14 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 46:22. (average 2.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Bayer won 9 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 31:15. (average 2.6:1.3).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Bayer Leverkusen: 3.21%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Bayer Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	10:5	5	7
15	Stuttgart	4	1	0	3	6:9	-3	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bayer Leverkusen
German Bundesliga
20.12.25	RB Leipzig - Bayer Leverkusen	1:3 ✺
13.12.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Köln	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.12.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Newcastle United	2:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
06.12.25	Augsburg - Bayer Leverkusen	2:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
02.12.25	Borussia Dortmund - Bayer Leverkusen	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 WWTLW
- VfB Stuttgart
Club Friendly
05.01.26	Stuttgart - Luzern	3:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
20.12.25	Stuttgart - Hoffenheim	0:0 ✺
14.12.25	Werder Bremen - Stuttgart	0:4 ✺
UEFA Europa League
11.12.25	Stuttgart - Maccabi Tel Aviv	4:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
06.12.25	Stuttgart - Bayern Munich	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
16.03.25	Stuttgart - Bayer Leverkusen	3:4
01.11.24	Bayer Leverkusen - Stuttgart	0:0
German Super Cup
17.08.24	Bayer Leverkusen - Stuttgart	3:2 penalties
German Bundesliga
27.04.24	Bayer Leverkusen - Stuttgart	2:2
German DFB Pokal
06.02.24	Bayer Leverkusen - Stuttgart	3:2
German Bundesliga
10.12.23	Stuttgart - Bayer Leverkusen	1:1
14.05.23	Stuttgart - Bayer Leverkusen	1:1

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