Match Info

Date: 1 September 2020, Tuesday


	Beijing Guoan		Chongqing Liangjiang Athletic

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.9	7	Watch
	1.4	4.6	5.75
	1.36	5.15	7	Watch
	1.42	4.7	6.2
	1.46	4.84	6.3
	1.33	4.75	7.5	Watch
	1.45	5.25	8.2	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↑ (1.37)	4.88 ↑ (4.74)	6.85 ↓ (7.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 0.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Beijing Guoan
67%

Draw
19.3%

Chongqing Liangjiang Athletic
13.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.4%

19.8%

11.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.2%

11.6%

20.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Beijing Guoan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Chongqing Liangjiang Athletic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Beijing Guoan than the current prediction. (-26.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Beijing Guoan that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chongqing Liangjiang Athletic than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Chongqing Liangjiang Athletic could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.6%	4.3%	17.1%

Beijing Guoan - Chongqing Liangjiang Athletic Predictions

Users Predictions: Beijing Guoan will win (55 of 70 users predict this - 78.57%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.96% – 88.18%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

Neutral location.

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion to Super League (Play Offs) and 7 in the zone Promotion to Super League (9thto16th places)).

Beijing Guoan has not chance of relegated, was already of qualify for acl, has not chance of win league.

Chongqing Lifan has not chance of relegated, has not chance of qualify for acl.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

In this match Beijing Guoan is certain favorite.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Beijing Guoan won 7 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 23-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Beijing Guoan won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Beijing Guoan
Chinese Super League
27.08.20	Cangzhou Mighty Lions - Beijing Guoan	2:2 ✺
22.08.20	Beijing Guoan - Shanghai Port	1:2 ✺
16.08.20	Qingdao Hainiu - Beijing Guoan	3:3 ✺
12.08.20	Beijing Guoan - Hebei CFFC	3:1 ✺
06.08.20	Tianjin Jinmen Tiger - Beijing Guoan	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 TLTWW
- Chongqing Liangjiang Athletic
Chinese Super League
26.08.20	Shanghai Port - Chongqing Liangjiang Athletic	3:0 ✺
21.08.20	Chongqing Liangjiang Athletic - Cangzhou Mighty Lions	1:0 ✺
17.08.20	Wuhan - Chongqing Liangjiang Athletic	2:0 ✺
11.08.20	Chongqing Liangjiang Athletic - Qingdao Hainiu	0:0 ✺
07.08.20	Hebei CFFC - Chongqing Liangjiang Athletic	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Chinese Super League
26.07.20	Chongqing Liangjiang Athletic - Beijing Guoan	1:2
10.07.19	Beijing Guoan - Chongqing Liangjiang Athletic	4:1
09.03.19	Chongqing Liangjiang Athletic - Beijing Guoan	0:4
30.08.18	Beijing Guoan - Chongqing Liangjiang Athletic	2:1
15.04.18	Chongqing Liangjiang Athletic - Beijing Guoan	3:3
25.10.17	Beijing Guoan - Chongqing Liangjiang Athletic	1:0
02.06.17	Chongqing Liangjiang Athletic - Beijing Guoan	1:0

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