Match Info

Date: 18 September 2022, Sunday

Location: Benfica Campus (Lisbon)

Referee: Silva D. (Por)


	Benfica B		Covilhã

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.33	6.5
	1.44	4.1	6
	1.4	4.3	6.1
	1.43	4.4	6.4
	1.5	4.42	6.81
	1.42	3.8	7
	1.41	4.4	6.6
	1.44	4.5	6.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↓ (2.11)	4.28 ↑ (3.13)	6.5 ↑ (3.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Benfica B
64.4%

Draw
21.5%

Covilhã
14.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

28.8%

28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.9%

28.1%

27.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Benfica B has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+21.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Benfica B's performance.

Covilhã has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Covilhã might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benfica B than the current prediction. (-20.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Benfica B that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Covilhã than the current prediction. (+13.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Covilhã could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	12.5%	0%

Benfica B - Covilhã Predictions

Users Predictions: Benfica B will win (35 of 40 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.25% – 97.75%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 11 and 16 in the zone Liga Portugal 2 (Relegation)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Benfica B won 1.

Recent matches Benfica B is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Covilhã is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Benfica B could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Benfica B is a favorite.

Last 19 head-to-head matches Benfica B won 7 matches, drawn 8 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 30-26.

Including matches at home between the teams Benfica B won 4 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 18-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Benfica B
Portuguese Liga 2
10.09.22	Vilafranquense - Benfica B	3:2 ✺
03.09.22	Benfica B - Leixões	2:1 ✺
28.08.22	Torreense - Benfica B	0:0 ✺
17.08.22	Benfica B - Estrela da Amadora	1:2 ✺
12.08.22	Tondela - Benfica B	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LWTLT
- Sporting Covilhã
Portuguese Liga 2
11.09.22	Covilhã - Nacional	1:2 ✺
04.09.22	Farense - Covilhã	2:2 ✺
27.08.22	Covilhã - Penafiel	0:2 ✺
19.08.22	Tondela - Covilhã	1:1 ✺
13.08.22	Covilhã - Feirense	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
13.02.22	Covilhã - Benfica B	1:2
11.09.21	Benfica B - Covilhã	0:0
08.05.21	Benfica B - Covilhã	1:1
10.01.21	Covilhã - Benfica B	1:1
29.12.19	Covilhã - Benfica B	2:2
03.03.19	Covilhã - Benfica B	2:0
27.10.18	Benfica B - Covilhã	3:2

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