Match Info

PORTUGAL: LEAGUE CUP - ROUND 3

Date: 14 December 2022, Wednesday

Location: Estádio José Santos Pinto (Covilhã)

Referee: Rosa D. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Covilhã		Nacional

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.25	3.2	2.2	Watch
	3.25	3.15	2.28
	3.1	3.1	2.21
	3.6	3.04	2.28
	3.3	3	2.15
	3.32	3.28	2.16	Watch
	3.25	3	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.3 ↑ (2.93)	3.11 ↑ (2.97)	2.22 ↓ (2.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Covilhã
28.2%

Draw
29.9%

Nacional
41.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.1%

30.7%

38.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.1%

30.7%

38.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Covilhã has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Covilhã than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.9%	24.4%	66.7%

Covilhã - Nacional Predictions

Users Predictions: 45 users predict this event. Covilhã will win (votes: 4 - 8.9%). Nacional will win (votes: 30 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 24.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nacional: 52.9% – 80.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Covilhã won 0.

Covilhã is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Nacional is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Nacional will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Covilhã won 0 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Covilhã won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Covilhã
Portuguese League Cup
27.11.22	Portimonense - Covilhã	2:0 ✺
20.11.22	Covilhã - Gil Vicente	2:2 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
13.11.22	Covilhã - BSAD	1:1 ✺
04.11.22	Mafra - Covilhã	3:2 ✺
30.10.22	Covilhã - Leixões	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LTTLL
- Atletico Nacional
Portuguese League Cup
27.11.22	Gil Vicente - Nacional	2:0 ✺
19.11.22	Nacional - Portimonense	2:0 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
12.11.22	Nacional - Porto B	4:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
09.11.22	Nacional - Tondela	1:0 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
06.11.22	Feirense - Nacional	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 LWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
11.09.22	Covilhã - Nacional	1:2
05.03.22	Nacional - Covilhã	1:1
10.10.21	Covilhã - Nacional	1:1
10.11.19	Nacional - Covilhã	1:0
11.02.18	Nacional - Covilhã	1:1
27.08.17	Covilhã - Nacional	0:1

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