Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 1 - Round 3

Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday


	Bergantiños		Numancia

	1	X	2
	3.7	2.88	2.05
	3.89	2.95	2.11
	3.72	2.95	2.11
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.77 ↑ (2.82)	2.93 ↓ (3.3)	2.09 ↓ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Bergantiños
24.4%

Draw
31.5%

Numancia
44.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33%

28.2%

38.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.4%

27.9%

38.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bergantiños has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bergantiños's form might have worsened.

Numancia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Numancia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bergantiños than the current prediction. (+9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bergantiños, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Numancia than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Numancia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Bergantiños - Numancia Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Numancia (1.69) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Numancia (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
30', 1 - 0, Saez M. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
65', 2 - 0, Saez M. ⚽,
83', 2 - 1, Garcia D. ⚽,
90+5', 3 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

In recent matches, Bergantiños has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Numancia's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Bergantiños may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Numancia has had a series of home games.

Numancia is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Bergantiños won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, Bergantiños won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bergantiños FC
Spanish Copa Federacion
17.09.25	Bergantiños - Estradense	2:1 ET ✺
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
14.09.25	Real Ávila - Bergantiños	2:1 ✺
Spanish Copa Federacion
10.09.25	Bergantiños - Marino de Luanco	4:2 ET ✺
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
07.09.25	Bergantiños - Salamanca	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
30.08.25	Deportivo A Coruña B - Bergantiños	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WLWTL
- CD Numancia
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
14.09.25	Numancia - Rayo Cantabria	2:1 ✺
06.09.25	Lealtad - Numancia	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
28.08.25	Numancia - Conquense	1:2 ✺
22.08.25	Numancia - Tarazona	0:1 ✺
09.08.25	Numancia - Utebo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 WTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
02.02.25	Numancia - Bergantiños	1:0
21.09.24	Bergantiños - Numancia	1:1

Upcoming Matches