Match Info

Liga Profesional - Clausura - Round 11

Date: 2 October 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Alberto J. Armando (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Martinez S. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	AFA Play, ESPN Premium, FOX Sports
Bolivia	ESPN 5
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 5
Croatia	Arena Sport 3
Ecuador	ESPN 5
Germany	Sportdigital1+, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Mexico	Disney+
Paraguay	ESPN 5
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 5
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
South-america	ViX Latin America
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	Spor Smart 1
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fanatiz, FOX Deportes, FOX Deportes
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 5


	Boca Juniors		Unión Santa Fe

	1	X	2
	1.41	4.2	8
	1.44	4.40	7.00
	1.45	4.15	7.8	Watch
	1.44	4.64	8.02
	1.47	4.41	6.9
	1.4	4.5	7.85
	1.44	4.5	7.35	Watch
	1.42	4.5	7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↓ (1.58)	4.41 ↑ (3.76)	7.49 ↑ (5.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Boca Juniors
65.9%

Draw
21.4%

Unión Santa Fe
12.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.3%

24.9%

15.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61%

24.2%

15.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Boca Juniors has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Boca Juniors's performance.

Unión Santa Fe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Boca Juniors than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Unión Santa Fe than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Boca Juniors - Unión Santa Fe Predictions

Users Predictions: Boca Juniors will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Brey L. (G) 17. Lozano L. 2. Di Lollo L. 42. Herrera F. 3. Blanco L. 18. Delgado M. 5. Paredes L. (C) 25. Ascacibar S. 20. Velasco A. 22. Villa S. 16. Miguel Merentiel	21. Mansilla M. (G) 15. Pintado J. 4. Rocha M. 26. Luduena J. 18. Ayala L. 20. Palacios J. 17. Mosqueira J. 10. Malcorra I. 22. Cuello B. 25. Tarragona C. (C) 11. Luna Diale M.
Substitutes
15. Alarcon Cepeda W. H. 11. Angel Romero 27. Braida M. 7. Carlos Palacios 32. Costa A. 4. Figal J. 19. Flores L. 30. Garcia J. (G) 9. Gimenez M. 24. Gorosito D. 26. Pellegrino M. 13. Valencia E.	31. Aguirre M. 36. Aimar M. 19. Estigarribia M. 8. Giaccone E. 33. Isla I. 5. Menossi L. 40. Meuli L. (G) 34. Peresutti M. 12. Pitton B. 43. Ramirez E. 27. Rubio T. 23. Solari A.
Coaches
Arruabarrena R.	Madelon L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', Herrera F. 🟨,
17', Paredes L. 🟨,
21', Mosqueira J. 🟨,
22', 1 - 0, Di Lollo L. ⚽, Paredes L. (A),
39', Tarragona C. 🟨,
45', Malcorra I. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Mosqueira J. ↓, Menossi L. ↑,
60', Miguel Merentiel ↓, Valencia E. ↑,
61', Villa S. ↓, Carlos Palacios ↑,
61', Velasco A. ↓, Flores L. ↑,
64', Cuello B. ↓, Estigarribia M. ↑,
66', Ayala L. 🟨,
72', Luna Diale M. 🟨,
73', Palacios J. ↓, Ramirez E. ↑,
73', Ayala L. ↓, Pitton B. ↑,
83', 2 - 0, Flores L. ⚽,
84', Ascacibar S. ↓, Angel Romero ↑,
86', Paredes L. ↓, Alarcon Cepeda W. H. ↑,
90+2', 3 - 0, Flores L. ⚽, Valencia E. (A),

Preview

An upper-table contender faces a competitive test against mid-table opposition (ranked 3rd in the Promotion - Liga Profesional (Clausura - Playoffs - 1/8 - finals) and 9th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Boca Juniors won 1.

Boca Juniors has enjoyed a winning run and is in top form (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Performances by Unión have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Boca Juniors may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Boca Juniors holds a commanding advantage according to the oddsmakers.

Confirmed absences for Boca Juniors: Aranda T. (Knee Injury) Bareiro A. (Lower Back Injury) Battaglia R. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Costa A. (Muscle Injury) Marchesin A. (Knee Injury) Rey Domenech C. (Inactive).

Confirmed absences for Unión: Solari A. (Inactive) Vargas L. (Knee Injury).

Our forecast points to a victory for Boca Juniors in today's match, at odds of 1.43.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Boca Juniors has recorded 9 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 28:22 (averaging 1.4:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Boca Juniors against this opponent, the record stands at 7 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses, with 20:15 goals (averaging 1.7:1.3 per game).

Outrights of Argentinian Liga Profesional for now

Boca Juniors: 13.4% Union de Santa Fe: 1.41%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Boca Juniors
Copa Argentina
27.09.26	Racing - Boca Juniors	2:3 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
20.09.26	San Lorenzo - Boca Juniors	0:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
15.09.26	São Paulo - Boca Juniors	1:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
11.09.26	Boca Juniors - Central Córdoba	3:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.09.26	Boca Juniors - São Paulo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WWTWW
- Unión Santa Fe
Argentinian Liga Profesional
19.09.26	Unión Santa Fe - Independiente	1:2 ✺
12.09.26	Talleres de Córdoba - Unión Santa Fe	2:1 ✺
07.09.26	Unión Santa Fe - Instituto Córdoba	3:2 ✺
28.08.26	Unión Santa Fe - Sarmiento de Junín	4:1 ✺
21.08.26	Aldosivi - Unión Santa Fe	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
15.03.26	Unión Santa Fe - Boca Juniors	1:1
18.07.25	Boca Juniors - Unión Santa Fe	1:1
29.01.25	Unión Santa Fe - Boca Juniors	1:1
20.11.24	Boca Juniors - Unión Santa Fe	1:0
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
06.03.24	Unión Santa Fe - Boca Juniors	1:0
20.10.23	Boca Juniors - Unión Santa Fe	2:1
Argentinian Liga Profesional
06.07.23	Unión Santa Fe - Boca Juniors	0:0

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