Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 2

Date: 31 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Signal Iduna Park (Dortmund)

Referee: Schlager D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Borussia Dortmund		Union Berlin

	1	X	2
	1.4	5.25	6.5	Watch
	1.41	4.8	7.25
	1.39	4.95	7.9
	1.42	5.3	7.39
	1.54	4.22	5.60	Watch
	1.4	4.6	6.5	Watch
	1.43	5.32	7.65	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↑ (1.36)	4.92 ↓ (5.47)	6.97 ↓ (7.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Borussia Dortmund
66.9%

Draw
19.4%

Union Berlin
13.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.9%

17.4%

12.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.9%

16.7%

12.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Borussia Dortmund has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Union Berlin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Borussia Dortmund, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Borussia Dortmund - Union Berlin Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Borussia D (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -1 - Borussia D (2.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - Borussia D (2.08) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Borussia D (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Borussia D (votes: 8 - 80%). Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kobel G. (G) 28. Anselmino A. 3. Anton W. 5. Bensebaini R. 2. Couto Y. 20. Sabitzer M. 24. Svensson D. 10. Brandt J. (C) 7. Bellingham J. 9. Guirassy S. 14. Beier M.	1. Ronnow F. (G) 5. Doekhi D. 14. Querfeld L. 15. Rothe T. 28. Trimmel C. 8. Khedira R. 24. Skov R. 33. Kral A. 19. Haberer J. 23. Ilic A. 10. Ansah I.
Substitutes
27. Adeyemi K. 37. Campbell C. 17. Chukwuemeka C. 13. Gross P. 33. Meyer A. (G) 8. Nmecha F. 6. Ozcan S. 26. Ryerson J.	7. Burke O. 11. Jeong Woo-Yeong 6. Kemlein A. 39. Kohn D. 41. Ogbemudia O. 17. Preu D. 31. Raab M. (G) 13. Schafer A. 21. Skarke T.
Coaches
Kovac N.	Baumgart S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
44', 1 - 0, Guirassy S. ⚽, Couto Y. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
58', 2 - 0, Guirassy S. ⚽, Beier M. (A),
64', Trimmel C. ↓, Skarke T. ↑,
64', Kral A. ↓, Jeong Woo-Yeong ↑,
70', Bellingham J. ↓, Nmecha F. ↑,
70', Ansah I. ↓, Burke O. ↑,
70', Skov R. ↓, Kohn D. ↑,
77', Anselmino A. ↓, Ryerson J. ↑,
77', Beier M. ↓, Chukwuemeka C. ↑,
81', 3 - 0, Nmecha F. ⚽,
82', Haberer J. ↓, Kemlein A. ↑,
86', Sabitzer M. ↓, Gross P. ↑,
86', Guirassy S. ↓, Adeyemi K. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Borussia D won 4.

Borussia D is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Union Berlin has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Union Berlin may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Borussia D is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Borussia D: Can E. (Groin Injury) Duranville J. (Shoulder Injury) Mane F. (Red Card) Schlotterbeck N. (Knee Injury) Silva F. (Injury) Sule N. (Calf Injury)

There will not play in Union Berlin: Juranovic J. (Injury) Markgraf A. (Inactive) Nsoki S. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Union Berlin: Burcu L. (Injury) Leite D. (Inactive)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Borussia D won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 39:18. (average 2.6:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Borussia D won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 28:8. (average 3.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Borussia Dortmund
German Bundesliga
23.08.25	St. Pauli - Borussia Dortmund	3:3 ✺
German DFB Pokal
18.08.25	Rot-Weiß Essen - Borussia Dortmund	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
10.08.25	Borussia Dortmund - Juventus	1:2 ✺
02.08.25	Borussia Dortmund - Lille	3:2 ✺
30.07.25	Siegen - Borussia Dortmund	1:8 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 TWLWW
- Union Berlin
German Bundesliga
23.08.25	Union Berlin - Stuttgart	2:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
15.08.25	Gütersloh - Union Berlin	0:5 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Union Berlin - Olympiacos Piraeus	0:1 ✺
02.08.25	Union Berlin - Espanyol	0:1 ✺
29.07.25	Schweinfurt - Union Berlin	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
22.02.25	Borussia Dortmund - Union Berlin	6:0
05.10.24	Union Berlin - Borussia Dortmund	2:1
02.03.24	Union Berlin - Borussia Dortmund	0:2
07.10.23	Borussia Dortmund - Union Berlin	4:2
08.04.23	Borussia Dortmund - Union Berlin	2:1
16.10.22	Union Berlin - Borussia Dortmund	2:0
13.02.22	Union Berlin - Borussia Dortmund	0:3

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