Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 1

Date: 23 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Jollenbeck M. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	St. Pauli		Borussia Dortmund

	1	X	2
	4.1	3.6	1.9	Watch
	4.5	3.9	1.73
	3.95	3.55	1.95	Watch
	4.18	3.68	1.96
	10.47	4.61	1.33	Watch
	4.2	3.7	1.75	Watch
	4.08	3.81	1.97	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.07 ↑ (4.57)	3.84 ↓ (4.02)	1.8 ↑ (1.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Pauli
19.5%

Draw
25.7%

Borussia Dortmund
54.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21%

23.9%

55.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.4%

24.6%

56.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Borussia Dortmund has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9%	9%	82.1%

St. Pauli - Borussia Dortmund Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH +0.5 - St. Pauli (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Borussia D (1.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Borussia Dortmund will win (55 of 65 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 75.85% – 93.39%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Borussia Dortmund will win (23 of 24 users predict this - 95.83%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 26 Selected Experts predict this event. St. Pauli (votes: 2 - 7.7%). Borussia D (votes: 24 - 92.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Vasilj N. (G) 5. Wahl H. 8. Smith E. 25. Dzwigala A. 11. Pyrka A. 6. Sands J. (C) 16. Fujita J. 23. Oppie L. 10. Sinani D. 27. Hountondji A. 28. Pereira Lage M.	1. Kobel G. (C) 39. Mane F. 3. Anton W. 5. Bensebaini R. 2. Couto Y. 20. Sabitzer M. 24. Svensson D. 13. Gross P. 7. Bellingham J. 9. Guirassy S. 27. Adeyemi K.
Substitutes
17. Afolayan O. 20. Ahlstrand E. 18. Banks S. 9. Ceesay A. 24. Metcalfe C. 21. Ritzka L. 34. Robatsch J. 2. Saliakas M. 1. Voll B. A. (G)	14. Beier M. 10. Brandt J. 37. Campbell C. 42. Kabar A. 49. Luhrs Y. 33. Meyer A. (G) 8. Nmecha F. 6. Ozcan S. 26. Ryerson J.
Coaches
Blessin A.	Kovac N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
22', Dzwigala A. 🟨,
26', Bensebaini R. 🟨,
34', 0 - 1, Guirassy S. ⚽, Sabitzer M. (A),
37', Smith E. 🟨,
39', Guirassy S. (Pen),
2nd Half (3 - 2)
46', Adeyemi K. ↓, Brandt J. ↑,
46', Bellingham J. ↓, Nmecha F. ↑,
50', 1 - 1, Hountondji A. ⚽, Sinani D. (A),
65', Couto Y. 🟨,
67', 1 - 2, Anton W. ⚽, Nmecha F. (A),
68', Hountondji A. ↓, Ceesay A. ↑,
74', 1 - 3, Brandt J. ⚽, Gross P. (A),
77', Pyrka A. ↓, Saliakas M. ↑,
77', Dzwigala A. ↓, Metcalfe C. ↑,
85', Mane F. 🟥,
86', 2 - 3, Sinani D. (Pen),
87', Gross P. ↓, Ozcan S. ↑,
88', Sands J. ↓, Afolayan O. ↑,
89', 3 - 3, Smith E. ⚽, Saliakas M. (A),
90+3', Sabitzer M. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 1.

St. Pauli is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Borussia D has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Borussia D is the team to beat.

There will not play in St. Pauli: Irvine J. (Foot Injury) Jones R.J. (Shoulder Injury) Mets K. (Knee Injury) Nemeth D. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Borussia D: Can E. (Groin Injury) Duranville J. (Shoulder Injury) Schlotterbeck N. (Knee Injury) Sule N. (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Borussia D: Couto Y. (Knee Injury) Ryerson J. (Calf Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 6:13. (average 1:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, St. Pauli won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:8. (average 0.8:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC St. Pauli
German DFB Pokal
16.08.25	Eintracht Norderstedt - St. Pauli	0:1 penalties ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	St. Pauli - Verona	1:0 ✺
02.08.25	Coventry City - St. Pauli	2:2 ✺
26.07.25	St. Pauli - Nice	2:0 ✺
20.07.25	St. Pauli - Karlsruher	6:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 WWTWW
- Borussia Dortmund
German DFB Pokal
18.08.25	Rot-Weiß Essen - Borussia Dortmund	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
10.08.25	Borussia Dortmund - Juventus	1:2 ✺
02.08.25	Borussia Dortmund - Lille	3:2 ✺
30.07.25	Siegen - Borussia Dortmund	1:8 ✺
FIFA Club World Cup
05.07.25	Real Madrid - Borussia Dortmund	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
01.03.25	St. Pauli - Borussia Dortmund	0:2
18.10.24	Borussia Dortmund - St. Pauli	2:1
German DFB Pokal
18.01.22	St. Pauli - Borussia Dortmund	2:1
Club Friendly
14.07.16	Borussia Dortmund - St. Pauli	3:2
08.09.15	St. Pauli - Borussia Dortmund	1:2
German DFB Pokal
28.10.14	St. Pauli - Borussia Dortmund	0:3

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