Match Info

Premier League - Round 11

Date: 25 December 2025, Thursday

Where to Watch on TV:


World	FIFA+


	Bourj		Al-Ahed

	1	X	2
	6.3	4.05	1.41	Watch
	6.33	4.32	1.43	Watch
	7	3.9	1.4
	7.5	4.1	1.38
	6.33	4.33	1.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.69 ↑ (5.6)	4.14 ↑ (3.65)	1.4 ↓ (1.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bourj
13.5%

Draw
21.9%

Al-Ahed
64.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.3%

25.1%

58.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.5%

23.9%

61.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bourj has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Al-Ahed has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Al-Ahed's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bourj than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Ahed than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Bourj - Al Ahed Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Al-Ahed (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Al-Ahed (1.47) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Al-Ahed (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
22', 0 - 1, Farhat H. ⚽, Haidar M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 3)
49', 0 - 2, Mpacko Etame J. ⚽, Ezzeddine H. (A),
79', 0 - 3, Al Haj A. ⚽, Zbib M. (A),
80', 1 - 3, Khriess H. ⚽,
90+3', 1 - 4, Zbib M. ⚽, Al Haj A. (A),

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 9 in the zone Premier League (Losers stage: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League (Winners stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bourj won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Al-Ahed is the team to beat.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Bourj won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 6:21. (average 0.6:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Bourj won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 2:11. (average 0.4:2.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bourj FC
Lebanese Premier League
19.12.25	Bourj - Al-Abbassieh	1:0 ✺
12.12.25	Bourj - Racing Beirut	2:1 ✺
06.12.25	Shabab Al Sahel - Bourj	1:0 ✺
09.11.25	Al-Safa Beyrut - Bourj	2:0 ✺
26.10.25	Hekmeh - Bourj	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWLLL
- Al-Ahed SC
Lebanese Premier League
20.12.25	Shabab Al Sahel - Al-Ahed	2:1 ✺
13.12.25	Al-Safa Beyrut - Al-Ahed	0:1 ✺
06.12.25	Al-Ahed - Al-Ansar Beirut	1:5 ✺
07.11.25	Hekmeh - Al-Ahed	1:3 ✺
01.11.25	Al-Ahed - Nejmeh	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Lebanese Premier League
21.09.24	Bourj - Al-Ahed	1:3
26.05.24	Al-Ahed - Bourj	2:3
05.04.24	Bourj - Al-Ahed	0:1
07.02.24	Al-Ahed - Bourj	3:0
03.12.23	Al-Ahed - Bourj	3:0
12.02.23	Al-Ahed - Bourj	1:0
21.01.23	Bourj - Al-Ahed	1:5

Bourj - Al-Ahed: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide