Match Info

NPL Queensland - Round 11

Date: 15 May 2026, Friday

Location: AJ Kelly Park (Brisbane)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	FQTV


	Brisbane Roar U23		Queensland Lions

	1	X	2
	6.1	4.85	1.35
	6.7	5.24	1.37	Watch
	6.5	4.5	1.36
	6.54	4.8	1.35	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.46 ↓ (6.9)	4.85 ↑ (4.69)	1.36 ↓ (1.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brisbane Roar U23
14.1%

Draw
18.8%

Queensland Lions
67.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13.4%

19.8%

66.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

12.8%

18.9%

69.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brisbane Roar U23 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Queensland Lions has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brisbane Roar U23 than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Queensland Lions than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Brisbane Roar U23 - Queensland Lions Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
28', 0 - 1, ⚽,
40', 1 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
65', 1 - 2, ⚽,
84', 1 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 12 in the zone Relegation ~ Queensland Premier League and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Queensland (Play Offs: )).

Recent form of Brisbane Roar U23 has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Lions is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Lions is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Brisbane Roar U23 won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 1:10. (average 0.3:3.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Brisbane Roar U23 won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:7. (average 0.5:3.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brisbane Roar U23
Australian NPL Queensland
10.05.26	Gold Coast Knights - Brisbane Roar U23	3:2 ✺
25.04.26	Moreton City Excelsior - Brisbane Roar U23	6:0 ✺
19.04.26	Brisbane Roar U23 - Olympic FC	1:5 ✺
12.04.26	Brisbane Roar U23 - Peninsula Power	2:1 ✺
29.03.26	Brisbane Roar U23 - Magic United	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.1 LLLWL
- Queensland Lions
Australian NPL Queensland
09.05.26	Queensland Lions - Moreton City Excelsior	2:0 ✺
25.04.26	Peninsula Power - Queensland Lions	3:2 ✺
19.04.26	Queensland Lions - Gold Coast United	1:0 ✺
10.04.26	Wynnum Wolves - Queensland Lions	0:5 ✺
28.03.26	Queensland Lions - Brisbane City	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Australian NPL Queensland
08.06.25	Brisbane Roar U23 - Queensland Lions	1:2
28.02.25	Queensland Lions - Brisbane Roar U23	3:0
16.06.24	Brisbane Roar U23 - Queensland Lions	0:5

Brisbane Roar U23 - Queensland Lions: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide