Match Info

Isthmian League Premier Division - Round 12

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Burgess Hill Town		Aveley

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.60	2.50
	2.25	3.50	2.52
	2.23	3.91	2.58
	2.35	3.94	2.45	Watch
	2.20	3.85	2.55
	2.23	3.52	2.57
	2.30	3.65	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↓ (2.45)	3.71 ↓ (3.72)	2.53 ↑ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Burgess Hill Town
40%

Draw
24.3%

Aveley
35.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37.6%

24.8%

37.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.6%

24.2%

36.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Burgess Hill Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Aveley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Burgess Hill Town than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aveley than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Burgess Hill Town - Aveley Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
51', 0 - 1, Bates E. ⚽,
90+7', 1 - 1, Rees R. ⚽,

Preview

Two mid-table squads battle for vital points to solidify their season (ranked 11th and 16th).

Burgess Hill has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Aveley is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Burgess Hill could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Burgess Hill has recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 8:8 (averaging 2:2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Burgess Hill against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 5:5 goals (averaging 1.7:1.7 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Burgess Hill	13	5	5	3	24:20	4	20
18	Aveley	13	4	2	7	20:21	-1	14

Last Results with these Odds

Aveley - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 37.61%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Burgess Hill Town
English Isthmian League Premier Division
03.10.26	Burgess Hill Town - Maldon & Tiptree	4:1 ✺
12.09.26	Burgess Hill Town - Ramsgate	2:2 ✺
31.08.26	Whitehawk - Burgess Hill Town	1:1 ✺
28.08.26	Burgess Hill Town - Dartford	2:1 ✺
22.08.26	Cheshunt - Burgess Hill Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WTTWT
- Aveley
English Isthmian League Premier Division
06.10.26	Cheshunt - Aveley	2:1 ✺
29.09.26	Dulwich Hamlet - Aveley	2:0 ✺
English FA Trophy
25.09.26	Aveley - Ware	3:1 ✺
English Isthmian League Premier Division
14.09.26	Aveley - Wingate & Finchley	3:4 ✺
12.09.26	Aveley - Leatherhead	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

English Isthmian League Premier Division
20.12.25	Burgess Hill Town - Aveley	2:5
15.08.25	Aveley - Burgess Hill Town	3:3
English FA Trophy
28.10.17	Burgess Hill Town - Aveley	2:0
18.10.14	Burgess Hill Town - Aveley	1:0

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