Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 7

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio El Plantío (Burgos)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, Dsports 9
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 7, TOD
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports, DSports 9
Mexico	Sky Sport
North-central-america	DirecTV Sports Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Peru	DirecTV Sports, DSports 9
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	DAZN Espana
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, Inter


	Burgos		Málaga

	1	X	2
	2.05	3	3.9	Watch
	2.1	3	3.65
	2.21	2.96	4.25
	4.35	1.54	5.47	Watch
	2.19	3.02	3.78	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.58 ↑ (2.11)	2.7 ↓ (3.15)	4.21 ↑ (3.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Burgos
39%

Draw
37.2%

Málaga
23.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44%

29.4%

26.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.2%

29.3%

26.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Burgos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Málaga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burgos than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Burgos, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Málaga than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Burgos - Málaga Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Burgos will win (votes: 6 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Burgos: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Burgos (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Cantero A. (G) 2. Lizancos A. 18. Cordoba A. (C) 8. Sierra G. 12. Miguel F. 23. Morante I. 5. Atienza M. 14. Gonzalez Ballesteros D. 10. Appin K. 21. Cordoba I. 9. Nino F.	1. Herrero A. (C) 16. Murillo D. 4. Galilea E. 20. Montero J. 18. Sanchez D. 10. Larrubia D. 8. Juanpe 22. Lorenzo D. 24. Lobete J. 37. Rodriguez R. 9. Chupe
Substitutes
15. Bunuel A. 17. Cantero M. 16. Curro 28. del Cerro S. 31. Garcia F. 35. Gonzalez D. (G) 20. Gonzalez M. 6. Gonzalez S. 22. Martinez B. 7. Mejia M. 1. Ruiz J. (G) 32. Ventosa E.	7. Abaida H. 5. Brasanac D. 25. Dorrio J. 12. Dotor C. 2. Gabilondo J. 14. Garcia V. 17. Jauregi E. 13. Lopez C. (G) 35. Ochoa A. 36. Recio A.
Coaches
Ramis L.	Pellicer S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Lorenzo D. ⚽, Lobete J. (A),
28', 1 - 1, Appin K. ⚽, Gonzalez Ballesteros D. (A),
31', Rodriguez R. 🟨,
33', Murillo D. 🟨,
42', Nino F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Sanchez D. ↓, Gabilondo J. ↑,
57', Cordoba I. ↓, Curro ↑,
60', Lobete J. ↓, Dotor C. ↑,
61', Cordoba A. 🟨,
63', Atienza M. 🟨,
68', Appin K. ↓, Garcia F. ↑,
69', Nino F. ↓, Gonzalez M. ↑,
69', Cordoba A. ↓, Gonzalez S. ↑,
70', Rodriguez R. ↓, Dorrio J. ↑,
70', Chupe ↓, Jauregi E. ↑,
74', Gonzalez Ballesteros D. 🟨,
76', 2 - 1, Miguel F. ⚽, Gonzalez Ballesteros D. (A),
80', Juanpe ↓, Abaida H. ↑,
84', Gonzalez Ballesteros D. ↓, Cantero M. ↑,
88', Galilea E. 🟨,
90+1', Curro 🟨,
90+2', Galilea E. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 10 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Burgos won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Málaga may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Burgos is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Burgos: Exposito M. (Injury)

There will not play in Málaga: Diarra M. (Injury) Enriquez R. (Knee Injury) Luismi (Face Injury) Merino I. (Ankle Injury) Munoz J. (Injury) Pastor A. (Knee Injury) Puga C. (Injury)

There are questionable in Burgos: Chapela I. (Injury) Mollejo V. (Inactive)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Burgos won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:3. (average 1.3:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Burgos won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0. (average 1.3:0).

Last Results with these Odds

Burgos - the odds 2.11 are the expected chance of winning is 44%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Burgos CF
Spanish LaLiga2
22.09.25	Burgos - Granada	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Sporting de Gijón - Burgos	2:3 ✺
07.09.25	Burgos - Las Palmas	0:0 ✺
31.08.25	FC Andorra - Burgos	2:1 ✺
24.08.25	Deportivo A Coruña - Burgos	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 TWTLT
- Málaga CF
Spanish LaLiga2
21.09.25	Málaga - Cádiz	0:1 ✺
13.09.25	Huesca - Málaga	1:0 ✺
06.09.25	Málaga - Granada	2:2 ✺
31.08.25	Las Palmas - Málaga	0:1 ✺
24.08.25	Málaga - Real Sociedad B	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 LLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
31.05.25	Málaga - Burgos	2:2
15.12.24	Burgos - Málaga	0:0
21.01.23	Málaga - Burgos	1:1
14.08.22	Burgos - Málaga	1:0
21.05.22	Málaga - Burgos	0:1
27.11.21	Burgos - Málaga	3:0

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