Match Info

Thai FA Cup - Semi-finals

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Chang Arena (Buriram)

Where to Watch on TV:


Thailand	AIS PLAY


	Buriram United		Ayutthaya United

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.26	5.5	7.5
	1.24	5.15	9	Watch
	1.25	5.48	9.18	Watch
	1.22	5.5	8
	1.3	6.3	6.8	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.25 ↓ (1.3)	5.59 ↓ (6.3)	8.1 ↑ (6.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Buriram United
72.5%

Draw
16.3%

Ayutthaya United
11.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.6%

14.8%

13.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.3%

11%

18.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Buriram United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Ayutthaya United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Buriram United than the current prediction. (-19.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Buriram United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ayutthaya United than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ayutthaya United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Buriram United - Ayutthaya United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Etheridge N. (G) 75. Lee-Oh S. 22. Ko Myeong-Seok 6. Good C. 14. Walsh S. 5. Bunmathan T. 27. Sukjitthammakul P. 15. Weerawatnodom N. (C) 32. Zulj R. 26. Toku E. 10. Mueanta S.	1. Makemusik W. (G) 5. Changthong A. 6. Wellington Priori 2. Hwang Hyun-Soo (C) 16. Kamkla B. 8. Worasut N. 28. Promsomboon N. 36. Islame Y. 88. Baek Sung-Dong 9. Conrado 17. Laptrakul C.
Substitutes
7. Bissoli 34. Bootprom C. (G) 33. Chotmuangpak T. 16. Dougall K. 17. Fandi I. 2. Haiprakon S. 9. Jaided S. 8. Maikami R. 54. Rattanasuwan N. 19. Schindler K.	34. Aon-pean V. 23. Biaothungoi P. 7. Bunsan K. 29. Dechmitr S. 10. Diego Carioca 11. Kasemkulwirai K. 4. Leddel N. 31. Noichernphan A. 39. Pisansub S. (G) 22. Pombuppha C. 47. Tamma C.
Coaches
Jackson M.	Tulwattanangkul A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
15', Wellington Priori 🟨,
17', 1 - 0, Walsh S. ⚽,
30', Sukjitthammakul P. 🟨,
41', 2 - 0, Walsh S. ⚽, Mueanta S. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Wellington Priori ↓, Leddel N. ↑,
46', Worasut N. ↓, Diego Carioca ↑,
46', Bunmathan T. ↓, Dougall K. ↑,
46', Mueanta S. ↓, Jaided S. ↑,
60', Baek Sung-Dong 🟨,
61', Toku E. ↓, Schindler K. ↑,
61', Good C. ↓, Haiprakon S. ↑,
63', 3 - 0, Schindler K. ⚽, Sukjitthammakul P. (A),
67', Promsomboon N. 🟨,
67', Kamkla B. ↓, Tamma C. ↑,
67', Baek Sung-Dong ↓, Dechmitr S. ↑,
71', 4 - 0, Jaided S. ⚽, Schindler K. (A),
80', 5 - 0, Zulj R. ⚽, Schindler K. (A),
83', Zulj R. ↓, Chotmuangpak T. ↑,
89', Tamma C. 🟨,
90', Changthong A. ↓, Pombuppha C. ↑,

Preview

Buriram is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ayutthaya United has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Buriram may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Buriram is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Buriram won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:1. (average 3:0.3).

Including home match between the teams, Buriram won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Buriram United - the odds 1.3 are the expected chance of winning is 71.56%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Buriram United
ASEAN Club Championship
13.05.26	Buriram United - Johor Darul Takzim	1:2 ET ✺
Thai League 1
10.05.26	Buriram United - Lamphun Warriors	1:1 ✺
ASEAN Club Championship
06.05.26	Johor Darul Takzim - Buriram United	1:3 ✺
Thai League 1
02.05.26	Thai Port - Buriram United	3:1 ✺
29.04.26	Rayong FC - Buriram United	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LTWLL
- Ayutthaya United
Thai League 1
10.05.26	Ayutthaya United - Thai Port	1:4 ✺
02.05.26	Bangkok United - Ayutthaya United	4:1 ✺
26.04.26	Ayutthaya United - Prachuap	1:3 ✺
12.04.26	Buriram United - Ayutthaya United	2:0 ✺
05.04.26	Lamphun Warriors - Ayutthaya United	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Thai League 1
12.04.26	Buriram United - Ayutthaya United	2:0
27.09.25	Ayutthaya United - Buriram United	1:4
Club Friendly
27.07.25	Ayutthaya United - Buriram United	0:3

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