Match Info

ASIA: AFC Champions League - Round 3

Date: 22 October 2024, Tuesday

Location: Chang Arena (Buriram)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA AFC 1, beIN Sports MENA AFC 1, beIN Sports MENA AFC 1, TOD
Australia	Paramount+
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Moja TV, Sportklub 3
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
China	iQIYI, Migu, QQ Sports
Croatia	SportKlub 3
Hong-kong	HOY TV
India	Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel, RCTI+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Malaysia	Astro Arena Bola 2, Astro Go
Montenegro	Sportklub 3
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO, SportKlub 3
Romania	AntenaPLAY
Russia	Okko Sport, TV Start Triumph
Slovenia	SportKlub 3
South-korea	Tving
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sportkanalen
Turkey	Spor Smart 2
Ukraine	Sport 2
Usa	Paramount+
Vietnam	FPT Play
World	Onefootball app, Sport 2 Baltic, Triller TV+


	Buriram United		Pohang Steelers

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.98	3.6	3.4
	1.9	3.75	3.6
	1.94	3.89	3.88
	1.9	3.83	3.59	Watch
	1.91	3.7	3.25	Watch
	1.96	3.8	3.59	Watch
	1.9	3.75	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↓ (2.52)	3.76 ↑ (3.48)	3.56 ↑ (2.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Buriram United
48.7%

Draw
25%

Pohang Steelers
26.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.7%

26.6%

36.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.6%

26.7%

36.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Buriram United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Buriram United's performance.

Pohang Steelers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Pohang Steelers might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Buriram United than the current prediction. (-12.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Buriram United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pohang Steelers than the current prediction. (+10.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pohang Steelers could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	22.2%	22.2%

Buriram United - Pohang Steelers Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Buriram will win (votes: 10 - 58.8%). Pohang will win (votes: 4 - 23.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 17.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Buriram: 35.4% – 82.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Etheridge N. (G) 92. Kim Min-Hyeok 16. Dougall K. 6. Good C. 11. Cools D. 2. Haiprakon S. 5. Bunmathan T. (C) 23. Causic G. 10. Lucas Crispim 9. Jaided S. 7. Bissoli	21. Hwang In-Jae (G) 2. Eo Jeong-Won 5. Aspropotamitis J. 34. Lee Gyu-Baeg 77. Wanderson (C) 7. Kim In-Sung 6. Kim Jong-Woo 8. Oberdan 37. Hong Yoon-Sang 10. Baek Sung-Dong 9. Jorge Luiz
Substitutes
17. Charalampous C. 19. Chrigor 20. Djalo M. 3. Hemviboon P. 8. Maikami R. 96. Matheus Vargas 95. Ratree S. 18. Stephen Berg A. 27. Sukjitthammakul P. 40. Tabinas J. 1. Tedsungnoen S. (G)	55. Choi Hyeon-Woong 16. Han Chan-Hee 70. Hwang Seo-woong 4. Jeon Min-kwang 11. Jo Seong-Jun 18. Kang Hyeon-Je 88. Kim Dong Jin 23. Lee Dong-Hyeop 15. Lee Kyu-min 26. Lee Tae-Seok 19. Yoon Min-ho 1. Yun Pyeong-guk (G)
Coaches
Loss O.	Park Tae-Ha

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
19', Dougall K. 🟨,
30', Lee Gyu-Baeg 🟨,
35', Loss O. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Lee Gyu-Baeg ↓, Jeon Min-kwang ↑,
56', 1 - 0, Bissoli ⚽, Haiprakon S. (A),
57', Kim In-Sung ↓, Yoon Min-ho ↑,
57', Baek Sung-Dong ↓, Lee Tae-Seok ↑,
59', Good C. 🟨,
65', Haiprakon S. ↓, Djalo M. ↑,
65', Good C. ↓, Tabinas J. ↑,
68', Kim Jong-Woo ↓, Han Chan-Hee ↑,
75', Jaided S. ↓, Chrigor ↑,
76', Hong Yoon-Sang ↓, Lee Kyu-min ↑,
86', Bunmathan T. ↓, Matheus Vargas ↑,

Preview

Buriram in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Pohang is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recently opponents have a series of home games.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Buriram won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:2 (average 0.5:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Buriram won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Buriram United
Thai League 1
17.10.24	Buriram United - Uthai Thani	1:0 ✺
AFC Champions League
01.10.24	Central Coast Mariners - Buriram United	1:2 ✺
ASEAN Club Championship
26.09.24	Buriram United - Kaya	7:0 ✺
Thai League 1
22.09.24	Buriram United - Prachuap	6:0 ✺
AFC Champions League
17.09.24	Buriram United - Vissel Kobe	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WWWWT
- Pohang Steelers
South Korean K-League 1
18.10.24	Pohang Steelers - Suwon	1:1 ✺
06.10.24	Pohang Steelers - Suwon	1:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
01.10.24	Pohang Steelers - Shanghai Port	3:0 ✺
South Korean K-League 1
27.09.24	Pohang Steelers - Incheon United	1:0 ✺
22.09.24	Pohang Steelers - Gangwon	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

AFC Champions League
23.04.14	Pohang Steelers - Buriram United	0:0
11.03.14	Buriram United - Pohang Steelers	1:2

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