Match Info

Copa Betano do Brasil - 1/16-finals

Date: 30 April 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estádio Rei Pelé (Maceió)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video


	CS Alagoano		Grêmio

	1	X	2
	4.1	3.2	1.95
	4.2	3.3	1.75
	3.85	3.2	2
	4.51	3	2.04
	4.06	3.14	2	Watch
	4.6	3.25	1.8
	4.08	3.14	2.01
	3.85	3.2	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.16 ↓ (4.87)	3.18 ↓ (3.63)	1.94 ↑ (1.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

CS Alagoano
22.5%

Draw
29.4%

Grêmio
48.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.1%

25.6%

55.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20%

24.4%

52.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

CS Alagoano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Grêmio might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for CS Alagoano than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	25%	41.7%

CS Alagoano - Grêmio Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. CSA will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Grêmio will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. CSA (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - CSA (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. CSA (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gabriel Felix (G) 2. Felipe Albuquerque 4. Islan 3. Betao 6. Enzo 8. Gustavo Nicola 5. Camacho (C) 7. Silas 10. Brayann 9. Tiago Marques 11. Guilherme Cachoeira	1. Tiago Volpi (G) 18. Joao Pedro 21. Jemerson 4. Walter Kannemann (C) 23. Marlon 17. Dodi 6. Cuellar G. 99. Olivera C. 8. Edenilson 11. Monsalve M. 22. Braithwaite M.
Substitutes
20. Alvaro 18. Baianinho 22. Danilinho 12. Georgemy (G) 26. Gustavinho 19. Igor Bahia 15. Kevyn 21. Klenisson 13. Marcao 17. Marcelinho 16. Roberto 14. Vander	47. Alysson 77. Andre Henrique 15. Camilo Reijers 10. Cristaldo F. 12. Gabriel Grando (G) 34. Igor Serrote 2. Joao Lucas 25. Lucas Esteves 14. Nathan 35. Ronald 44. Viery 3. Wagner Leonardo
Coaches
Higo	Mano Menezes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
15', 1 - 0, Tiago Marques ⚽, Enzo (A),
23', 1 - 1, Braithwaite M. ⚽, Monsalve M. (A),
27', Islan 🟨,
27', Jemerson 🟨,
38', Silas 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
58', Joao Pedro ↓, Igor Serrote ↑,
58', Monsalve M. ↓, Alysson ↑,
64', Gustavo Nicola ↓, Kevyn ↑,
64', Tiago Marques ↓, Igor Bahia ↑,
64', Edenilson ↓, Cristaldo F. ↑,
64', Cuellar G. ↓, Camilo Reijers ↑,
69', Camacho 🟨,
72', Walter Kannemann 🟨,
76', Silas ↓, Baianinho ↑,
80', 1 - 2, Dodi ⚽,
84', Guilherme Cachoeira ↓, Marcelinho ↑,
87', 2 - 2, Marcelinho ⚽,
88', Dodi ↓, Ronald ↑,
90+2', 3 - 2, Brayann ⚽,

Preview

1st leg.

CSA is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Grêmio is in an unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games, wins - 0).

Grêmio could have physical problems compared to their opponent - in recent days, they have played more matches than their opponents.

In this match, Grêmio is a favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, CSA won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5 (average 0.5:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams, CSA won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1 (average 0.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CS Alagoano
Brazilian Serie C
26.04.25	CS Alagoano - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1 ✺
21.04.25	ABC - CS Alagoano	1:1 ✺
12.04.25	CS Alagoano - Anápolis	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Alagoano
06.04.25	Clube Sociedade Esportiva - CS Alagoano	0:1 ✺
02.04.25	CS Alagoano - Clube Sociedade Esportiva	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WTTWT
- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Serie A
27.04.25	Vitória Salvador - Grêmio	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
24.04.25	Godoy Cruz - Grêmio	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
19.04.25	Grêmio - Internacional RS	1:1 ✺
16.04.25	Mirassol - Grêmio	4:1 ✺
13.04.25	Grêmio - Flamengo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 TTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
04.10.22	Grêmio - CS Alagoano	2:0
23.06.22	CS Alagoano - Grêmio	1:1
Brazilian Serie A
07.11.19	Grêmio - CS Alagoano	2:1
29.07.19	CS Alagoano - Grêmio	0:0

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