Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 4

Date: 25 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: Arena do Grêmio (Porto Alegre)

Referee: Claus R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Mexico	Azteca Deportes, Fanatiz
Usa	Fanatiz


	Grêmio		Atlético Mineiro

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.3	3.4	Watch
	2.15	3.4	3.25
	2.22	3.2	3.2	Watch
	2.25	3.4	3.5
	2.24	3.35	3.32	Watch
	2.2	3.1	3.2
	2.2	3.41	3.53	Watch
	2.25	3.4	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↓ (2.23)	3.32 ↓ (3.43)	3.31 ↑ (3.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio
43%

Draw
28.5%

Atlético Mineiro
28.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.1%

27.4%

30.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

26.8%

29.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

The ML Model estimate for Grêmio aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69.2%	23.1%	7.7%

Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Grêmio will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). Atlético MG will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Grêmio: 44.1% – 94.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Grêmio (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Weverton (G) 7. Pavon C. 53. Gustavo Martins 44. Viery 23. Marlon (C) 5. Nardoni J. 19. Noriega E. 37. Gabriel Mec 99. Enamorado J. 95. Carlos Vinicius 9. Amuzu F.	22. Everson (G) 2. Natanael 4. Ruan Tressoldi 14. Vitor Hugo 16. Lodi R. 21. Franco A. 8. Maycon 30. Victor Hugo 10. Gustavo Scarpa 28. Cuello 7. Hulk (C)
Substitutes
77. Andre Henrique 38. Caio Paulista 17. Dodi 2. Fabian Balbuena 12. Gabriel Grando (G) 40. Jefinho 18. Joao Pedro 14. Marcos Rocha 65. Riquelme 47. Roger 39. Tiago 4. Walter Kannemann	6. Alonso J. 11. Bernard 9. Cassierra M. 39. Cisse M. 92. Dudu 1. Gabriel Delfim (G) 17. Igor Gomes 27. Minda A. 25. Perez T. 23. Preciado A. 19. Reinier 3. Roman I.
Coaches
Castro L.	Dominguez E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Nardoni J. 🟨,
17', Natanael 🟥,
40', Pavon C. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Gustavo Scarpa ↓, Cisse M. ↑,
51', 1 - 0, Noriega E. ⚽, Marlon (A),
55', Gabriel Mec 🟨,
56', 1 - 1, Victor Hugo ⚽, Everson (A),
66', 2 - 1, Marlon ⚽, Noriega E. (A),
68', Hulk ↓, Reinier ↑,
69', Cuello ↓, Dudu ↑,
69', Gabriel Mec ↓, Dodi ↑,
80', Enamorado J. ↓, Roger ↑,
80', Pavon C. ↓, Joao Pedro ↑,
80', Victor Hugo ↓, Minda A. ↑,
84', Carlos Vinicius 🟨,
86', Nardoni J. ↓, Jefinho ↑,
89', Vitor Hugo ↓, Cassierra M. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 2.

Grêmio is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Atlético MG's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Grêmio could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Grêmio: Braithwaite M. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Perez L. (Inactive) Villasanti M. (Knee Injury) Wagner Leonardo (Red Card)

There will not play in Atlético MG: Alexsander (Injury) Lyanco (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in Grêmio: Monsalve M. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 11 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 37:27. (average 1.9:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Grêmio won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 17:10. (average 1.7:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Atletico-MG	29	12	8	9	39:34	5	44
18	Gremio	29	7	9	13	31:39	-8	30

Last Results with these Odds

Grêmio - the odds 2.23 are the expected chance of winning is 42.09%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Atlético Mineiro - the odds 3.07 are the expected chance of winning is 30.54%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
22.02.26	Juventude - Grêmio	1:2 penalties ✺
15.02.26	Grêmio - Juventude	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.02.26	São Paulo - Grêmio	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
07.02.26	Grêmio - Novo Hamburgo	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.02.26	Grêmio - Botafogo RJ	5:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WTLWW
- Atlético Mineiro
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
22.02.26	Atlético Mineiro - América Mineiro	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Itabirito - Atlético Mineiro	2:7 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.02.26	Atlético Mineiro - Remo	3:3 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
07.02.26	Atlético Mineiro - Athletic Club	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.02.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Atlético Mineiro	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 TWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
17.08.25	Atlético Mineiro - Grêmio	1:3
29.03.25	Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro	2:1
09.10.24	Atlético Mineiro - Grêmio	2:1
01.09.24	Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro	2:3
26.11.23	Atlético Mineiro - Grêmio	3:0
22.07.23	Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro	1:0
09.12.21	Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro	4:3

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